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UFC 171: Hendricks vs Lawler


wandshogun09

Who wins and how?  

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Both Sanchez and Shields are underdogs with the bookies in their fights (Sanchez about 7/5 and Shields is 9/5). Can't just be me who thinks those are both great bets? I've been a Lombard fan for a wee while but he's had problems with grapplers at MW in the UFC before, and although this is at 170 Shields has fought at 185 most of his career. Hector wins if he can keep it a striking contest and he's got the judo background but I think Shields will take him down and control him at least enough to get a 29-28 unfortunately. Sanchez is an even weirder one, I thought he lost the Gomi fight but he gave Melendez and Ellenberger as much as they could handle and he's beaten plenty high level guys. Jury is coming off that razor thin split over Ricci and hasn't really fought anyone on Diego's level yet. I certainly don't think Jury should be the favourite.

 

EDIT: Forgot that Jury beat Johnson but that was four fights and 18 months plus ago now, Johnson was a different proposition back then and Jury hasn't really kicked on yet.

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anyone else find it weird that Sanchez/Jury is being billed above Lombard/Shields? getting the countdown treatment and stuff.

How many fights are left on Lombard's big money deal. They may want to wave goodbye to him, and are not wanting to promote him as a result. Shields is also hard man to look good against unless Lombard bombs him out early.

 

Sanchez is also a bigger star than Lombard and Shields, he has been around since the beginning of the UFC boom and headlined a PPV with Penn that did a massive number.

 

I like Jury to beat Sanchez though, as the blueprint is there to beat Sanchez. If Jury does not get caught up in a brawl or too many ground exchanges, he can pick Sanchez off to score a modest points win.

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I sort of fancy Jury to beat Sanchez as well. I hope not though.

 

What's the UKFF feeling on these fights, prediction-wise then?

 

Hendricks vs Lawler - Looking at the poll it's currently 19-5 in favour of Hendricks. We might be slightly underselling Lawler but it's logical to pick Hendricks. I think Lawler actually is the better striker, but they've both got huge power. Assuming all is about equal on the feet, the difference maker should be Hendricks' wrestling. So I'm going Hendricks on points or possibly even a late submission. I think he takes a more grappling-heavy approach for this one.

 

Condit vs Woodley - This is going to be a hell of a fight, I reckon. Tough to call as well. The easy pick is probably - 'Condit's takedown defence isn't great, Woodley's a wrestler = Woodley wins'. But I don't think it's as simple as that. Condit is a nightmare off his back, constantly attacking with elbows, submissions and he has a very active guard with underrated sweeps. Johny Hendricks couldn't do much at all to Condit on the ground. And standing, yeah Woodley has stupid power but Condit is the better, more varied striker and he has a rock chin. Don't get me wrong, I could see Woodley by decision or even a TKO, but it's going to be a real battle. I've got a feeling Woodley is going to make Condit's life miserable early on, but he's so big that sometimes he fades later in fights and I think Condit can force that with his style and pace. So yeah, I think Condit survives the early attempted murder, and stops a gassed Woodley late. Condit, TKO, round 3.

 

Sanchez vs Jury - Jim summed my thoughts up really. If Diego can make it a war I think he overwhelms Jury. But I see Jury fighting smart and taking the points. Depends which Diego shows up though. If he comes in like he did against Gomi or Hathaway, he'll probably have a bad night. If he comes in like a rabid dog like against Melendez and Kampmann, Jury hasn't faced anything like that before so who knows how he'll respond. Jury decision for me though.

 

Shields vs Lombard - Well, let's hope this is over quick. Shields could well smother his way to another sleepy decision here. But I actually like Lombard in this fight. There seems to be this feeling that Lombard has been a flop in the UFC and it's unfounded IMO. He battered Palhares and Marquardt early, and lost to Boetsch in a shit fight and Okami. I had him winning the Boetsch fight and the Okami fight was a lot closer than people seem to make out. You could make a case for Lombard being 4-0 in the UFC. With different judges he might be.

 

Shields could shut him down but I think he might be in deep shit here. Lombard is a killer striker which is something Shields never looks comfortable dealing with, plus he's got solid takedown defence and an Olympic team level Judo background. People might point to the Okami fight and say that's evidence Lombard can be stifled by a grappler, and I can see the logic there. But Okami was much bigger, plus that was at 185. At 170 now, I think Lombard might be better equipped to deal with that. Fuck it, Lombard via vicious KO, round 1.

 

Few other random predictions from the undercard;

 

OSP on points

Rick Story on points

Dennis Bermudez on points

Jessica Andrade by submission

Justin Scoggins by submission

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has Lombard ever been shut down in a fight like Shields likes to do? I only ever recalling Lombards losses being when he hasnt been able to land that bomb on the feet, he has that Olympic level judo to back him up too...whatever happens i think Jake Shields needs to go through hell in round 1 to win this fight, if it goes past a round im picking Shields via decision.

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good lord, just listened to Diego Sanchez' post fight scrum, is it me or is he getting crazier? He reckons he's completely overthrown his style and that Miles Jury has no idea what's coming at him.

 

Can't wait :thumbsup:

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I'd like to see Diego bust out his BJJ again. Go back to his roots a bit. People forget it was his grappling which won him the TUF 1 tournament in the first place. As much as we all love watching his nutty style, I'd like to see him take a bit more of an intelligent approach. Still go nuts but do it in bursts and mix it in with grappling to keep opponents guessing. That way he'd be less predictable and he'd probably take a lot less damage.

 

As for Lombard vs Shields, yeah you'd think the longer it goes Shields should hold the advantage. I'd like Shields chances better if this was a 5 rounder, I think. He still might win but if it was a 5 round fight you might see Lombard start slower and Shields could come on strong in the last 3 rounds. In a 3 rounder, I think we'll see Lombard come out like a bull with a sore cock. I'm not sure Shields will be able to weather that storm. And even if he does, by the time Lombard starts slowing down the fight will probably be almost over anyway being a shorter fight. Lombard can do 3 rounds and remain dangerous. I agree with your overall point though, if Shields can just get through that first round he's over the worst. I just struggle really seeing Shields controlling Lombard for long enough spells to take a decision.

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good lord, just listened to Diego Sanchez' post fight scrum, is it me or is he getting crazier? He reckons he's completely overthrown his style and that Miles Jury has no idea what's coming at him.

 

Can't wait :thumbsup:

 

I really worry about Diego Sanchez. I think he's on the verge of a doing something mental, in the vein of (I hate to say it) Chris Benoit. It's not that what he's saying is crazy, he quite literally looks insane now. His eyes are all over the place and you can see him almost struggling to slow himself down to get his words out.

 

Very worrying.

 

In relation to the card, this is one of the hardest to predict in a long long time. I honestly am struggling to predict the main card which is a great thing really.

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In relation to the card, this is one of the hardest to predict in a long long time. I honestly am struggling to predict the main card which is a great thing really.

 

Yeah, that's always a good thing. That's kind of what UFC 170 suffered from, most people were pretty sure Rousey and Cormier were going to win the top two fights. With this card, the four fights I've gone into detail on there, I could easily see any of them going the other way. The closest to a confident pick for me is Hendricks over Lawler but even then it's not like Lawler is a cakewalk. He's a dangerous striker with big KO power, and he's hard to hold down. Condit/Woodley, Sanchez/Jury and Lombard/Shields are all really tough to call.

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yeh this card is full of pick 'ems. Even the PPV opener OSP/Krylov is abit of tough one to predict, OSP's a bit of a beast but with Krylov dropping down from heavyweight it's kind of a 'fuck knows?' opener, great card.

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I'm going for:

 

Hendricks TKO R2

Condit decision

Sanchez decision

Shields decision

OSP decision

 

I hope I'm wrong about Hendricks and Shields. It would be great to see Lawler as champ, I didn't think he would achieve much of anything in this UFC run but he's looked great. I think Hendricks might win it with some ground and pound in the 2nd or 3rd.

 

And I really really hope I'm wrong about Shields. I want Lombard to smash him in the first round but I think Shields might be able grind it out. I didn't mind Shields before he came to the UFC, he was never a favourite of mine but I didn't mind watching him fight. I still appreciate how talented he is now, but his UFC run has just been a chore to watch for the most part. Does anyone think Shields could be close to a title shot or being cut depending on this result? He'd have 4 wins and a no contest in his last 5 fights if he wins so would have to be in the title mix again. But if he loses could he go the same way as Fitch? Different situations since Fitch had lost a couple, but you never know.

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Hendricks gets the KO- although I really want a Lawler win. I think Hendricks delivers a harder shot than Lawler can take though. There's a nice bit of nostalgia for me when I see Robbie Lawler, he was on the first UFC I ever watched, UFC 40.

 

Condit gets the UD. Woodley has serious power, but Condit has a great beard- he took some Hendricks hammers quite well. Condit has the better all around game, and has improved his TDD. I don't think takedowns will be much of an issue though, the way Woodley has fought in recent times, I think he understands that trying to grind wins isn't the way to go. He's come a long way since those early Strikeforce fights.

 

Sanchez gets the TKO. Jury won't be able to withstand Diego's aggression, and he'll get swarmed in late round 2 for the stoppage (I hope, Jury is just persona non grata to me).

 

I'll be watching this very closely from start to finish, don't see a single snoozer on paper.

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