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UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2


wandshogun09

Who wins and how?  

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Yeah I noticed Luke Thomas and Jeff Wagenwhateverhisnameis in the 169 hype bits the other night. I like having more guys on there to give different views but it does add fuel to the Ariel stuff the other day. The next MMA Beat will be interesting. But then if guys like Thomas and co are feeding on the Zuffa tit now, they mightn't want to burn that bridge by getting into specifics with Helwani.

 

Watched Barao vs. Faber 1 the other day in prep, and I can't remember if Faber was actually carrying an injury in that fight, but he certainly seemed very gun-shy, he'd throw one punch or kick for Barao's 6. A stark difference to his 2013, a different beast indeed.

 

I don't think he was injured going in, but he fucked his ribs up very early in the fight so that would've hampered him. Then again, it was Barao who did that damage so it's not like he got lucky and Faber blew out a knee or something. Faber had knackered ribs because Barao knackered them.

 

Faber was gun-shy but it's worth considering who he was in there with as well. He'd looked great before that first Barao fight as well. Remember how he totally dismantled Brian Bowles? He never had that streak like he's on now but he was still on good form going in.

 

He's had a great 2013 and I think it'll be a better fight this time. They're both coming in on a real confidence high and are both fighting better than ever. But I don't see Faber winning. It's not brought up much but while Faber has upped his game since the last fight, so has Barao. He'd started to become a bit of a decision winner but now he's coming off back to back impressive finishes, including a spin-kick KO. I just don't think Faber has the advantage anywhere really. Except conditioning. I've said before that I'm never too confident in the Nova Uniao guys' cardio over a long fight. And Barao has mentioned the weight cut being hard on him before. We know Faber can go 5 rounds at a frantic pace. That could be the key to victory for Faber if he can weather the storm.

 

Still got Barao on points though. In an exciting, competitive fight. But fairly clear cut.

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I've just got through countdown part 3 with Mir/Overeem, and I've come to conclusion that Mir is utterly fucked here. I said before he's getting beat, but as soon as he came out with "i've learned to train smarter, rather than training harder" almost followed by sparring with his training partner James Mcbloodysweeney.

 

James Mcsweeney for christ's sake! He'd having a better chance with Kimbo Slice as his training partner.

 

And to state the obvious, has Mir left jacksons?

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Going back to David's comments regarding the first fight's coverage, during the countdown show Faber explains that he just wasn't himself in the first fight. That he had been out so long without fighting and on top of that dealing with his sisters accident. Surprisingly he says that whilst he had injured ribs, Barao was the better man on the night.

This is pretty much what I meant when I said they hadn't covered the first fight in anything I'd really seen up to now. I wasn't meaning they should be telling us all how Faber got spanked and so on, but at least use the first fight to build the 2nd one.

 

And to state the obvious, has Mir left jacksons?

I've heard nothing about that? I know Overeem isn't training with the Blackzilians for this fight though. He's training in Thailand.

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I can't stress enough how bloody fantastic this entire countdown episode is. I may be wrong, but is this a new production team as it's superb. I can't remember the last few, but this seems new to me.

 

As per David above, yeah, the countdown follows Overeem during his training in Thailand and good god does it look like paradise. The big thing I got from it is that Mir is now a lazy bastard again sparring with James Mcsweeney, and Overeem is getting massages and going for boat rides whilst scootering across Thailand.

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I've just got through countdown part 3 with Mir/Overeem, and I've come to conclusion that Mir is utterly fucked here.

 

Yeah, I think he is :)

 

When you look at the match up on paper, it's hard to see how Mir wins.

 

-His bread and butter is his BJJ, but his takedowns aren't much cop.

 

-I doubt he'll be able take a fresh Overeem down.

 

-Mir is a bit of a slow starter. Overeem is probably the fastest starter in the division.

 

-Mir has historically turtled up when he gets hurt. Overeem will hurt him early and often.

 

-Overeem has shitty cardio. But so does Mir. So chances are he can't even rely on that. And I don't think it goes long enough for Overeem to gas.

 

How does he win? Usually I'd give any top heavyweight a decent shot at Overeem if they can get through the first few minutes. Then Overeem usually fades and he's wide open. But Mir usually has about the same 1 round cardio capacity as Overeem. And I seriously doubt he can withstand that initial Overeem onslaught like Travis Browne did.

 

Mir is fucked. My prediction is PAIN. Overeem by first round moiderization via knees.

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It feels a bit like UFC are trying to give Overeem a name win to help restore credibility and bring some return on their investment. Overeem's last two losses have come against durable, heavy handed strikers who have fought through adversity to win. Mir isn't as durable as Bigfoot or Browne, and in his last fight was taken out by a knee in the clinch against the cage- which funnily enough is possibly Overeem's greatest strength.

 

Actually, Reem was a heavy favourite against Bigfoot and Browne, they were considered a level below by some (including Reem himself) before the fight. It makes sense really. Had Overeem not failed the drug test and lost his balls at the same time, he'd have been a perfect mega-star for the UFC. Great look, well-spoken, dangerous in the cage. The Lesnar fight would have been a passing of the torch.

 

Haven't been able to watch the Countdown yet, might do so if there's time between now and Raw.

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Absolutely, Browne was getting blasted. If we had the ref from the Mir vs. Barnett fight there definitely would have been a stoppage.

 

Watched the Countdown, it's fantastic. Love how they've brought in so many talking heads from outside the UFC, makes everything feel more mainstream, much better than just having the fighters and Joe Rogan talk. They all put over Renan Barao a crazy amount too, which adds to Dana's thing about calling him possibly the best P4P. Of the three top fights, they did the best job promoting Barao vs. Faber, it got me really amped.

 

They pretty much sold Lamas on being a non-entity, with emphasising his lack of talking. I get the approach but it didn't come off as well it may have on paper. I'm seeing a clear Aldo victory, although Lamas has that underdog thing going for him a little.

 

Overeem vs. Mir was a nice little piece. They showed Reem having a good old time there, in his own space, diving off boats and shit. Hopefully it's allowed him to clear his mind and return focused. He looked much slimmer around the face and shoulders to me, but I don't know if that's just angles/lighting/clothing. The weigh-ins will provide a clearer picture.

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And, to be fair, that fight with Browne would have been stopped 99.9% of the time during that barrage from Overeem.

 

If you look at Overeems latest losses, the guy should be fighting for, or at least, have already fought for the title.

 

He utterly outclassed both Browne and Bigfoot but for whatever reason gassed and couldn't finish the job. For me, Overeem's striking is the best in the heavyweight division and if he can sort out his cardio then I truly believe he gives Cain a massive test and possibly even wins.

 

His striking is that deadly.

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I don't think he can sort his cardio out. I've seen people act like he gasses because he's too big but, while the bulk doesn't help his gastank, he has always faded. Even in his days as a beanpole 205er in Pride, he often gassed. I don't know what it is about him. It might be more a mental thing than physical. It's not like he doesn't train hard. It just seems like when a guy won't go away or crumble from his opening attack, he loses heart and he starts getting tired.

 

The Browne fight, I couldn't blame him gassing. He had Browne in deep shit and there was two or three times the ref could've stopped it and no-one would've cried early stoppage. So I don't blame him going all out there and with the way he was attacking, I'd argue that any heavyweight would've gassed, even Cardio Cain. That's an exception. But the rest of his career is full of fights where he started strong then just faded. The Liddell fight, the two Shogun fights, Little Nog, Bigfoot, Sergei 2. These were all fights he was doing well in, but the other guy just wouldn't fuck off and he seems to mentally check out when that happens. Whether it's the old adrenaline dump or what, he just melts away to a big lump of impotent cock when he realizes the other guy isn't going anywhere.

 

He's undoubtedly a great striker but I wouldn't give him any more than a very slim punchers (or knee-ers) chance against Cain. That's a terrible match up for him IMO. Cain isn't stupid enough to stand with a fresh Overeem. And if Cain can take down Lesnar, JDS, Bigfoot etc, then I think he could take down Overeem. Then there's the cardio, Cain's mental toughness and focus. Overeem would have about a 3 minute window to do his damage I reckon. After that I think we'd see Cain taking a knackered, huffing and puffing Overeem down at will and punching the shit out of him until he quits or the ref steps in. I think it'd be a miserable night for Reem.

 

Even the striking thing, I'd have JDS to KO him. I could see Hunt catching him in a rematch as well. They are both good enough to hang with Overeem, and definitely both powerful enough to KO him.

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And, to be fair, that fight with Browne would have been stopped 99.9% of the time during that barrage from Overeem.

 

If you look at Overeems latest losses, the guy should be fighting for, or at least, have already fought for the title.

 

He utterly outclassed both Browne and Bigfoot but for whatever reason gassed and couldn't finish the job. For me, Overeem's striking is the best in the heavyweight division and if he can sort out his cardio then I truly believe he gives Cain a massive test and possibly even wins.

 

His striking is that deadly.

The Bigfoot fight was a real battle, and his loss there doesn't look that bad after seeing how Bigfoot fared against Mark Hunt as far as durability goes, and how he did against Travis Browne, knowing what we do about him now.

 

The fight with Browne should have been stopped in my opinion, simple as that. I've never seen a fight continue when one competitor is hitting his opponent with such clean strikes without reply. The Carwin/Lesnar fight is the only thing that comes close, and Carwin's punches were nowhere near as clean.

 

You're right though, if Overeem sorted his cardio out he'd be a force to be reckoned with, up there with both Dos Santos and Cain.

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Agree with pretty much all of the above re: Overeem. I really hope that the Mir fight doesn't go the distance. I have visions of Reem/Mir's 3rd round being less like Hunt/Bigfoot & more like Abbot/Some fucker in that blokes garden. Horrible.

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