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UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santos III


Who wins and how?  

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OK, we move on. And we're heading into probably the most loaded closing stretch to a year in UFC history. Starting with the big boys.




PPV MAIN CARD - BT Sport - 3am UK time

Cain Velasquez vs Junior Dos Santos - UFC Heavyweight Title

Roy Nelson vs Daniel Cormier

Gilbert Melendez vs Diego Sanchez

Gabriel Gonzaga vs Shawn Jordan

John Dodson vs Darrell Montague


FOX SPORTS 1 PRELIMS - BT Sport - 1am UK time

Tim Boetsch vs CB Dollaway

Hector Lombard vs Nate Marquardt

Sarah Kaufman vs Jessica Eye

George Sotiropoulos vs KJ Noons



TJ Waldburger vs Adlan Amagov

Tony Ferguson vs Mike Rio

Jeremy Larsen vs Andre Fili

Dustin Pague vs Kyogi Horiguchi


Cain vs JDS 3, I have a great feeling, is going to be an epic trilogy decider. It's been a funny one. The first two fights were completely one sided in different ways.


It started in November 2011 with their first meeting, which also launched the UFC debut on FOX.




At that point, both had wrecked everyone in their path. To this day, they're still each other's only UFC blemishes. Between them they'd destroyed the whole division and it came down to a true clash of the titans. The fight was hugely hyped and there was a great buzz around the whole thing. Then about 60 seconds into the very first round...




Done. JDS became the new UFC heavyweight champion.


The following May at UFC 146, Cain rebounded by smashing Bigfoot Silva into a bloody mess. On the same night, JDS exacted some revenge for Big Nog's mangled arm when he successfully defended the title and battered Frank Mir.


The rematch was set for December 2012's UFC 155 PPV.




It couldn't have looked more different than the first fight. Cain absolutely dominated for the full 25 minutes. Coming close to stopping JDS on a few occasions.




A one sided, five round mauling. Cain regained the title with a clear unanimous decision. And JDS looked like this after...




So they're 1-1. And like Cain after the first fight, it was JDS' turn to rebuild himself. Which he did in style at UFC 160, with a spinning kick KO over the concrete headed Mark Hunt. Cain barely broke a sweat defending his title against Bigfoot in a rematch the same night.


And here we are again. The war to settle the score. I really think we're in for an amazing fight here. Saving the best for last with the rubber match. Now they've both felt the full force of the worst case scenario of what the other guy can do, I think we'll see the best possible versions of both of them on October 19th.


I really like Cain but I'm rooting for JDS here. Logically I'd have to predict Cain to go 2-1 up though. He's got more options and the wrestling base is the key IMO. We'll see though. If anyone can stop Cain it's JDS. We know this because we've seen him do it once. I'm thinking Cain on points again but in a much more back and forth fight.




Co-main event is another battle of heavyweights. Roy Nelson vs Daniel Cormier. It's an interesting fight. Both have big power, Roy has the BJJ (which he hardly uses anymore) and Cormier has the wrestling. Nelson also has a ridiculous chin. The likes of JDS, Werdum and Stipe Miocic couldn't put him away despite landing flush shots repeatedly. One of the toughest men in the sport no doubt. It's conditioning that lets him down though. If he doesn't land that overhand right early on he's usually sucking wind by the second round. Cormier has also requested Nelson has a shave as posted in the MMA news thread. Haven't heard the commission's stance on that yet.


Cormier is the better athlete easily. Olympic wrestler, NCAA Div 1 etc. He's a bit younger, should have the speed advantage and he's definitely been in less wars. Undefeated in MMA as well, a record which includes wins over Josh Barnett, Frank Mir and a KO over Bigfoot. Nelson should be the underdog here. But still, he's always in the fight because of his combination of toughness and punching power. Smart money is on DC though.


What's interesting here is, if Cormier wins, what's his next move? I think it's clear he's biding his time and waiting on the Cain-JDS result. If Cain wins, I think we'll see Cormier try to drop to 205 to avoid having to fight his team mate. If JDS wins though, I think Cormier will hang around. He'd probably be one more good win away from a title shot.




Melendez vs Sanchez is a frontrunner for FOTN, even on a card like this. I can't wait for this fight. Hopefully Sanchez turns up ready for battle, he looked a bit off against Gomi last time. If he's up for this it should be nothing short of insane. They've both got that wild, non-stop Mexican style and with the show being in Texas with the Mexican population there, the crowd should be into it even more.


Gonzaga vs Jordan and Dodson vs Montague round out the PPV. Gonzaga-Jordan should be a fun heavyweight fight. Don't know this Montague cat, but Dodson is one of the more exciting flyweights with his power and speed.


The FOX Sports 1 bit is stacked.


Lombard vs Marquardt is PPV main card worthy. Two experienced fighters who have been everywhere and been on the cusp of greatness at one point or another, but choked on the big stage. Lombard's been a flop for Zuffa aside from the Palhares fight. And he's on big money. They've probably stuck him on FS1 as a way to not have to pay him his cut of PPV. This is a tough one to call because they're both so inconsistent. I like Lombard to clip him early like Ellenberger did. Nate has looked pretty poor lately but you never know with him. Everyone thought he was finished before then he had that corker with Tyron Woodley and KO'd him.


Hopefully Boetsch will spark Dollaway, can't stand him. G-Sot vs Noons is as close to a SEG era throwback as you'll see in 2013. Almost a pure BJJ vs boxer fight. Could be good. And Sarah Kaufman usually delivers an exciting fight.


Awesome card top to bottom. When you've got guys like Oliveira and Waldburger on the Facebook stream, you know it's a loaded card.

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It's too bad UFC events don't have names anymore, like UFC 40: Vendetta. This one would be UFC 166: Shane O's Favourites. :D


Cain vs. JDS III should be amazing, either a quick KO or another war, they're undoubtedly the best heavyweights in the world by a considerable margin. They're trying to sell it as their final encounter here, with all the talk in promos about legacies and being the rubber match, but at their age and the lack of depth in their division, I wouldn't be surprised to see a Best of 7 Series between these two. I love watching Big Country, yeah his cardio is shit but he can land massive strikes. I'd like to see him shut down Cormier- I have no idea why, as he comes across as a nice enough guy, but there's something about Cormier I don't like. Maybe it's because in his UFC debut, Mir actually seemed to be trying harder to press the action, with flying spinning kicks and all sorts, while Cormier was just trying to control the fight with his grappling and the occasional peppering strikes. When Mir's the more likable fighter in a fight, we have a problem.


Melendez vs. Sanchez has to be awesome. Sanchez was pretty dire in the Gomi fight, but he had a consistent run of barnburners before that, and Gil's just the guy to bring that back out of him. When Sanchez is on, there's few fighters in the world more exciting to watch. Melendez impressed me in his debut against Bendo as well. The winner, especially if it's in a dominant fashion, has to be looking at a title shot down the road.


Gonzaga's had a bit of a career resurgence, but he needs to avoid that hammer of Jordan's and get it to the ground, pronto. He's given up thinking he's a K-1 striker, and is a much better fighter for it.


John Dodson- one of those guys I should hate, his cockiness makes Mir look humble, but he is one athletic little dude and about as powerful as a flyweight can be. Never heard of Montague before, but he's the number 6 flyweight according to Sherdog. I've grown to enjoy flyweights a lot, this should be an action packed PPV opener.


Lombard vs. Marquardt... call me crazy but I think this is "loser leaves town". Lombard, as said, has been a bust, and Marquardt has struggled greatly the past few years. Got booted from the UFC, "never fighting in the UFC again", looked fantastic against Woodley, then choked against a relative unknown in Saffediene, then got given a second chance in UFC anyway and got absolutely destroyed. It's a shame, because I like both guys, but if Overeem vs. Mir is do or die, so is this.


G-Sot... ah, I used to be a big fan, obviously the patriotism thing for me, but his style also made me appreciate the ground game, the way he'd rip arms off and collect them as trophies. Then I saw what he was like on The Smashes as a person, very disappointing. That doesn't have any bearing on his fighting ability though, but he is creeping into his late 30s and his chin seems to be completely shot. Picking Noons by TKO in the second there, he's a very good striker. I feel he should have beat Couture on that last Strikeforce card, that was a fun fight. See you Georgie.


A bit annoyed that they've stuck Oliveira on the FB prelims. Fighting as well as he did against one of the P4P best in Frankie Edgar should count for something, right?


So, a bunch of guys in my favourite fighter list, picks for top fights- JDS R1 KO, Cormier UD and Melendez UD.

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Yeah, Dave, what makes you think this event will be shit? If you're going on the theory of 'stacked card on paper = letdown in practice' - that's not that bad a theory if you look back over old cards. There's been a few that looked awesome going in and ended up being pretty cack. And some shows which no-one was that arsed about going in ended up great. Still, plenty of stacked cards have delivered as well - UFC 160, UFC Boston etc.


And as Jim says, Gilbert Melendez and Diego Sanchez don't do drizzly shit fights. I think it's a really solid card all the way down really, with a few potential crackers. But we'll see how it plays out.

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It'd be a decent theory, in so much that sometimes we see bigger name fighters play it safe in high stakes fights, which leads to those dud stacked cards, but none of those fighters ever really play it safe (with the possible exception of Cormier). I can see the co-main possibly sucking if Nelson can't land the kill-shot and gasses while DC clinches for 3 rounds.

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The #1 Contender to Barnett's title should be interesting, although in the Barnett Title fight for the Barnett Title the winner will get scooped slammed and figure foured into next week.


I really like Roy Nelson, one of my favourites, but I see Cormier taking him on decision unless Roy does what he has done so many times and put all his weight into lumping him one.

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Yeah, Dave, what makes you think this event will be shit?

I dunno, I just see it playing out something like this;


Cormier vs Nelson - An easy decision win for Cormier. Lots of wrestling against the cage, with Cormier getting the better of the stand-up.


Melendez vs Sanchez - Diego comes out all hyped up, and Melendez outboxes him, keeping him at distance. Sanchez becomes disheartened and slowly fades as the fight ends in a unanimous decision with Sanchez all busted up.


Diego is 3-2 in his last five, with all of them ending in decisions.


Jordan vs Gonzaga - Two heavyweights that are nothing more than midcard fighters at best. I see an early KO for someone with some sloppy boxing involved.


Dodson vs Montague - A relatively easy decision win for Dodson


Yeah, I'm not amped by it. I hope I'm wrong though!

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The #1 Contender to Barnett's title should be interesting, although in the Barnett Title fight for the Barnett Title the winner will get scooped slammed and figure foured into next week.


Me and my mate were on about this before. It would be a bastard to try to apply in an MMA fight but if someone actually managed to lock on a figure four, instant fight ender or snapped kneecaps.


Dana was saying the other day that Fabricio Werdum is most likely getting the winner of Cain-JDS. He thinks Werdum will sit out for the title shot rather than take a fight in between. So Barnett is probably going to end up fighting again if he beats Travis Browne.

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This is going to annoy Butch and the other Barnett fans (I am one myself) but he reminds me a bit of The Blue Meanie, just without the make up and not as rotund.




I think David is being a tad harsh, Cormier vs Nelson could be a snoozer, the rest of the Main Card should be okay. I see Cormier winning a wide points verdict in relatively boring grinding fashion. I have a bet with a friend who is picking Nelson that Cormier will beat him, so I hope Cormier does win for once.

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The #1 Contender to Barnett's title should be interesting, although in the Barnett Title fight for the Barnett Title the winner will get scooped slammed and figure foured into next week.


Me and my mate were on about this before. It would be a bastard to try to apply in an MMA fight but if someone actually managed to lock on a figure four, instant fight ender or snapped kneecaps.


There is a judo version of the figure-four - I remember seeing Yoshida apply it to Royce Gracie in their PRIDE rematch back on NYE 2003/4. Looks halfway between a figure-four and a sharpshooter, as Yoshida was standing. It seemed like he couldn't get the leverage to lock it in properly, though.

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Now you mention it I vaguely remember something like that. Haven't seen that fight in years though. I want someone to go the whole hog though, little strut, a big 'Whooo' then slap on the figure four. Maybe slap the opponent in the face a bit if he doesn't tap quick enough. And hold onto the fence for leverage when the ref isn't looking.


I'm off work today so I'm rewatching the Cain vs JDS stuff. Just watched the Primetime for Cain-JDS 1, and I took out a valuable one minute of my day to watch the first fight.


I'm onto the second fight now. Just watched the weigh in, I totally forgot about Joe Rogan's serial killer face during the Cain-JDS 2 staredown.




I noticed on the Sky EPG as well, there's a Primetime listed soon on BT Sport. I forget which day and it doesn't give any details really in the info. I'm guessing that's for Cain-JDS 3. Seems a bit early but not complaining.

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