UFC on FOX 8: 'Johnson vs Moraga'

[jimufctna24]

I have decided to agree on Rory vs Ellenberger. I see a tough first round, and from there Rory taking over to win a modest points win. Voelker is my dog, the odds on MMAPlayground demand some serious play. Voelker was robbed a bit with Cote, and Lawler is not as good as his win over Kos would suggest, Voelker could be able to overwelm Lawler with grappling and cage work to score a points win.

 

I have Mouse and Liz winning as well.

[Egg Shen]

Going for Mouse, Macdonald, Lawler, Carmouche.

 

Id love to see Moraga, Voelker and Ellenberger win though...

 

Moraga because ive been sold on his style and his attitude, i think 125 needs a shot in the arm and i think Moraga provides it, he brings a little nastiness to the division and i like it.

 

Im picking Lawler for 2 reasons, one because its short notice for Voelker and two beause i think the Koscheck might have been the boost Lawler needed in his career, theres been times in recent years where hes seemed under motivated but i think hes got the fire back. Heart says Voelker though, should be a great fight.

 

And Ellenberger cause i wanna see Rory have a slap.

 

...if Rory goes in and handles Ellenberger though, thats gotta put him right up there, they might start having to get around this GSP/Rory problem pretty soon.

[hbk4life]

I'm going with the favourites too.

 

Mouse Dec

Rory TKO/KO R3

Lawler TKO/KO R1

Carmouche Dec

 

Like others have said, I wouldn't be surprised if I was wrong with all 4. I hope I'm wrong with one fight, I want Ellenberger to smash Rory.

[jimufctna24]

Thing with Robbie Lawler is, he is almost exactly the same he was in 2003 when UFC touted him as their next big thing. Lawler has not developed at all as a fighter. That is not to say he is complete gash, in his younger days he soundly outpointed Chris Lytle is a striking battle which is not to be sniffed at.

 

You know what Lawler is going bring and what his weaknesses are. He can brawl with the best of them and has decent power in his hands, but his grappling defense and submission defense have always been questionable. Dependent on who he faces, he can look very good or very average.

 

With most mid-level fighters it is usually a case of if Lawler can land first before a opponent can score takedowns consistently. By no means should Voekler even at short notice be a plus 800 underdog on Playground, as it is fantasy money I have wagered big on Lawler losing.

[wandshogun09]

Weigh in results;

 

Main card

Demetrious Johnson (124.5) vs John Moraga (124.5)

Jake Ellenberger (171) vs Rory MacDonald (170.5)

Robbie Lawler (170.5) vs Bobby Voelker (170)

Jessica Andrade (134) vs Liz Carmouche (136)

 

FX Prelims

Michael Chiesa (155.5) vs Jorge Masvidal (155)*

Danny Castillo (155) vs Tim Means (160)**

Mac Danzig (155) vs Melvin Guillard (155)

Daron Cruickshank (156) vs Yves Edwards (155)

Ed Herman (186) vs Trevor Smith (185)

Germaine de Randamie (135) vs Julie Kedzie (135.5)

 

Facebook Prelims

Aaron Riley (156) vs Justin Salas (155)

John Albert (137)*** vs Yaotzin Meza (136)

 

*Masvidal initially weighed 157.5 pounds but was given an additional two hours and made weight on his second attempt.

**Means will forfeit 20 percent of his purse to Castillo.

***Albert will forfeit 20 percent of his purse to Meza.

 

Means coming in that much over is bollocks.

 

On Lawler, I agree that he's pretty much the same as he was 10 years ago, but I'd definitely say his defensive wrestling is pretty solid. Especially at 170 where he's not so easy to control and is in top shape. Look at the Koscheck fight. There's probably not a stronger or more explosive pure wrestler at 170 than Kos, he took Lawler down but Lawler made him earn every second of it. And was able to get out from under him and put him away. His sprawl looked good, he fended off the worst positions, and scored the KO. A lot would have spent the entire round on their back under a fresh Koscheck.

 

He's still a throwback but he's not just a banger. It's how he wins his fights, like Wanderlei Silva, but he definitely has other skills he can fall back on when he needs to. His formative years were spent on the mat with Miletich, Horn and prime Hughes so he'd have learned a lot just by osmosis from them three.

 

Where's he training now? He seemed to slack off for a while but whatever he did to prepare for Kos, he looked great. I could be wrong but I get the impression Lawler is the type who never pushed himself fully in training, particularly post-Miletich. I think the effort and work he has to put in to make 170 is a great thing for him and forces him to really give it 100%.

 

I can't see him ever getting in the title mix, he'll probably settle into that Wandy/Franklin type role of just having fan friendly fights which don't really effect the title picture. But I saw enough in the Koscheck fight to make me think 170 is the division for him. I hope his little run continues for a bit yet. I'd love to see him in there with Thiago Alves and Matt Brown at some point.

 

I forgot about Voelker vs Cote. I had Voelker winning that as well. I really enjoyed that fight actually, but I did think the judges got that one wrong.

[Egg Shen]

Kinda disagree with Jims assessment of Lawler, hes a pretty good all-rounder and as Wand pointed out, has some good defensive wrestling...hes only ever been outgrappled by elite grapplers. My critisicm of him the last years has been complacency, theres been certain fights where hes lacked that killer edge that made him so fucking dangerous to begin with, the Koscheck fight showed its still there though.

 

Regardless of what me or Jim say though i dont think we're gonna have to worry about grappling in this fight

 

Wand, Lawlers now at ATT, go listen to his prefight interview with Ariel, sounds like hes got his shit in order.

[jimufctna24]

Kinda disagree with Jims assessment of Lawler, hes a pretty good all-rounder and as Wand pointed out, has some good defensive wrestling...hes only ever been outgrappled by elite grapplers. My critisicm of him the last years has been complacency, theres been certain fights where hes lacked that killer edge that made him so fucking dangerous to begin with, the Koscheck fight showed its still there though.

 

Regardless of what me or Jim say though i dont think we're gonna have to worry about grappling in this fight

 

Wand, Lawlers now at ATT, go listen to his prefight interview with Ariel, sounds like hes got his shit in order.

I maybe overstated how bad his defensive wrestling is, and when I say "brawler" I do not mean he is solely a banger, he has decent technique and power in his hands, although he is not a outstanding and varied striker.

 

Much like his old foe Nick Diaz, at 170lbs he will face too many decent wrestlers or varied strikers that will expose him. Lorenz Larkin and Tim Kennedy are decent wrestlers, but they are hardly the cream of offensive wrestlers, I know that is 185lbs but still it shows Lawler should have trouble.

 

We shall see what ATT are doing with him, maybe they can polish him up and work to his strengths like trainers have done with limited fighters in the past like Cro Cop and Rampage. But, in 2013 it is rare a limited fighter can go far in the UFC, I just do not see that much to Lawler's game. He is better than the Leben's of the world and is entertaining so he is off some value though.

[pryko]

Anyone know what time the prelims start tonight?

[wandshogun09]

Anyone know what time the prelims start tonight?

 

Facebook fights (Facebook/YouTube) - 9pm

FX fights (stream?) - 10pm

Main card (ESPN) - 1am

 

The FX fights aren't on ESPN are they? They're not on the EPG anyway.

[pryko]

Are the FX fights not on the UFC website? That's where they're usually on

[Egg Shen]

fuck it's earlier than usual, id have stayed up if i wasn't having a skinful of beer, tomorrow night it'll have to be for me.

[hbk4life]

I'm glad someone asked about the prelims, I would've missed most of them otherwise! I would've been looking for them at about 11pm.

 

I'm looking forward to a lot of the fights tonight, like Wand said before this could turn out to be a really enjoyable card. A couple of the prelims look like they could be great fights, especially Guillard vs. Danzig and Edwards vs. Cruickshank.

[wandshogun09]

Yeah, it's earlier than usual because the FOX shows start at 1am instead of 3am.

 

The FX fights are probably on ufc.tv. I haven't caught the last few events live so wasn't 100% sure if they still streamed them there.

 

Ellenberger quote on 'fruitstick' Rory;

 

"I really have nothing personal against Rory. He's used to being the bully, and he's talking trash on BJ Penn. In my mind, if you're really the best in world, and if you believe it, then you should not ever choose who you fight. Unfortunately for him, he didn't get to choose this fight.

 

It's hard to put it into words without sounding arrogant, but every time I fight, I try to make the adjustments to be a better athlete. I get more and more confident in my skills. You know Rory is a little bit premature, I think. He does have a lot of potential, and people have blown that way up.

 

When people started saying he was the next GSP, I almost choked on my coffee. Are you kidding me? There's not another GSP on this planet. There's only one GSP, and he has done things that nobody will ever be able to duplicate again. If he and Rory were to fight, it wouldn't even be close. There's not one place in his game that Rory is as good as GSP. Not one. I have an extreme point of view there.

 

He beat up BJ Penn who is a natural lightweight. I've just never been sold on Rory. I've fought on a few cards with him, and I definitely kept my eye on him, but I am extremely confident in my skills.

 

I think the most gratifying win for me, would be just to put him to sleep. That way, there's no question. Anytime you get a TKO, there's the chance that people will say it was stopped too early. I'd like for him to be out cold, sleeping. It's nothing personal against Rory. He is a nice kid. He's a little weird, and he dresses like a fruit-stick, but he's a nice enough kid, I guess.

 

He has shown his emotions, but I think that's his age showing through. You can tell he's a little bit immature. I've been there, I've done it. I've lost fights due to being over emotional. He was tweeting at me like he was mad. I got what I wanted out of him [laughs]. You can see he's emotional about this fight, and I definitely plan to use it to my advantage."

[wandshogun09]

Only watched the main card so far.

 

MacDonald vs Ellenberger might be the most disappointing fight of the year for me. I think it is. While Nog vs Rashad and Machida vs Hendo were letdowns, I was half expecting it in those fights. But I really thought this was going to be good. You'd think with two young up and comers, seen as the future of the division, both a win or two away from title contention - you'd think they'd have really went for it but they just seemed so flat. It was bad for all involved. Even in victory, Rory's stock doesn't go up much from a win like that. Might have been the safest way to win, and Ellenberger is dangerous, but it's not a performance that will have people begging for him to get a title shot.

 

Mighty Mouse looked great. Nice to see him finally break that streak of decisions. Good fight as well, I get the feeling we'll see a lot more of Moraga. I think this might be a bit of an eye-opener fight for him, like Pettis was for Bendo and Hughes was for GSP the first time.

 

Carmouche looked really good. Totally dominant and got the finish. Wouldn't mind seeing her fight Alexis Davis next. I kind of felt sorry for Andrade at times, just out of her depth. She's only been fighting a couple of years though and she's young so there's time for her yet.

 

I fucking love Robbie Lawler. Fantastic performance. I haven't seen the prelims yet but if there was a 'performance of the night' bonus, for the main card at least, Lawler would get it. Wonder who he fights next? Like I said before, I'd love to see him fight Matt Brown or Thiago Alves. Akiyama would be fun. Or re-book the Siyar fight. Plenty of choices. It's great to see Lawler fired up and on form. The move to the UFC coupled with the drop to 170 really seems to have lit a fire under his arse. He really looks rejuvenated.

[weevil]

It was a good night for pro wrestling moves, with Salas doing an atomic drop on Riley near the end of their fight, and Andrade hitting a falcon arrow on Carmouche.