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UFC 158: 'St Pierre vs Diaz'


wandshogun09

Who wins and how?  

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OK, Condit vs Hendricks. This is a great fight, only 6 days away and we've barely touched on it. As I type, the poll is currently 14-10 for Hendricks so we're pretty split.

 

12 of the 14 who voted Hendricks picked him by KO, which I understand given what he's done to the likes of Fitch and Kampmann over the last year or so. But I do kind of think Hendricks is being over hyped and slightly overrated. And Condit for me is again being slightly underrated. Condit is a much better striker than Fitch and is harder to hit and harder to finish than Kampmann. He's also a much better striker technically than Hendricks, better at submissions, granite chin and he doesn't go away easily when things get rough (see fights with GSP, Rory, Ellenberger).

 

I'm not discounting the possibility of Hendricks landing another big KO left hand, it would be foolish to, but Condit has the skills to beat him standing or grappling for me. Then again I thought the same with Kampmann.

 

Condit on points for me.

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But I do kind of think Hendricks is being over hyped and slightly overrated. And Condit for me is again being slightly underrated. Condit is a much better striker than Fitch and is harder to hit and harder to finish than Kampmann. He's also a much better striker technically than Hendricks, better at submissions, granite chin and he doesn't go away easily when things get rough (see fights with GSP, Rory, Ellenberger).

 

I'm not discounting the possibility of Hendricks landing another big KO left hand, it would be foolish to, but Condit has the skills to beat him standing or grappling for me. Then again I thought the same with Kampmann.

 

Condit on points for me.

This

 

If there is one fighter who will not make the footwork mistakes that landed Kammpman in trouble it is Condit who has fantastic footwork as the Diaz fight proved.

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Seeing as GSP has really improved on his boxing skills over the past couple of years and has been keeping most fights standing in that period I wonder if he will try similar tactics it in this fight to prove he can out box Diaz. That would be one way of "putting a beating" on Diaz as he claims he wants and is going to do. Logically you have to think GSP will take it to the ground, use his strengh to keep Diaz down and dry hump his way to victory. Diaz does have very good BJJ so I don't expect him to get submitted, but he will find it hard to get back up. I'm going to go with it being a stand up boxing battle for the majority and with that thinking I go with Diaz to win on points.

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You may have a point Gooner, but I think GSP is the type who, if he thinks he's being bettered in the boxing, he won't be too proud to take it to the ground. If he thinks Diaz is outboxing him I think he'll take a different approach. He doesn't seem the type to let ego get the best of him.

 

Plus wrestling has always been Diaz's only real weakness, and it's probably GSP's biggest asset. He always says he looks at his fights as mathematical equations and takes the fight where his opponent has the least probability of winning. He probably sees more risk in Diaz catching him on the feet than on the ground.

 

It will be interesting to see what GSP's tactics are. He's known for his great strategy but there's really no "safe" area with Diaz. If GSP slips up Diaz has the skills to KO or submit him, I just don't see it happening.

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You may have a point Gooner, but I think GSP is the type who, if he thinks he's being bettered in the boxing, he won't be too proud to take it to the ground. If he thinks Diaz is outboxing him I think he'll take a different approach. He doesn't seem the type to let ego get the best of him.

 

Plus wrestling has always been Diaz's only real weakness, and it's probably GSP's biggest asset. He always says he looks at his fights as mathematical equations and takes the fight where his opponent has the least probability of winning. He probably sees more risk in Diaz catching him on the feet than on the ground.

 

It will be interesting to see what GSP's tactics are. He's known for his great strategy but there's really no "safe" area with Diaz. If GSP slips up Diaz has the skills to KO or submit him, I just don't see it happening.

 

I see where you're coming from when it comes to GSP and the pride part but he has talked a lot of smack for awhile now about Diaz. If Diaz can get the better off him in the stand up, do his trash talking as he throws, GSP could let his pride get in the way. I don't look at Diaz as someone who is going to knock you out with one shot, so I think on that alone GSP will be confident enough if losing the battle to keep it standing. Of course he could blow all that out of the water in the first few seconds by scoring a huge takedown and setting the pattern for the entire bout. I sure hope that doesn't turn out to be the case.

 

Even with GSP having the wrestling factor and it being Diaz is weakness, GSP still might be weary about keeping him on the ground in case of getting submitted.

 

Hopefully he keeps the majority of it standing, if he does I'm expecting fireworks.

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You could be onto something I guess. He did seem to get under GSP's skin a bit on the conference call. It was the most emotion we've heard out of him in a long time anyway - "Listen to me, uneducated fool".

 

I'd be surprised if it gets the better of him in the cage and I'm still expecting a fairly dominant GSP decision, but stranger things have happened.

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I can't shake the feeling that we are going to see an upset on Saturday with Diaz getting the win. I don't know why.

 

For the co-main I'm going for Condit as I think Hendricks is overrated, and he's an annoying little turd. Personally, and it's like Weidman at middleweight, I think Hendricks needs this win before I would call him the number one contender. Granted, out of all of the potential candidates he has the better record, but I still feel that he needed that one big win to seal the deal. Kampmann for me will never be a contender, Koscheck is now on the slide and I personally feel Koscheck won that fight, and then there is Fitch who again was on the slide. Don't get me wrong, they are all good wins no doubt but I think you need a win against a guy who themselves is battling for that number 1 spot. Beat Condit and I will truly believe that Hendricks is the real deal.

 

So, my prediction for this fight is either a Condit TKO or Condit by decision.

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You could be onto something I guess. He did seem to get under GSP's skin a bit on the conference call. It was the most emotion we've heard out of him in a long time anyway - "Listen to me, uneducated fool".

 

I'd be surprised if it gets the better of him in the cage and I'm still expecting a fairly dominant GSP decision, but stranger things have happened.

 

I'm sure unless something happens between now and fight time that GSP will keep his emotions in check. I'm trying to remember the Condit vs GSP fight from top of my head as I haven't watched it since that night, if you can remember at all, did GSP take him down say more then 5 times in the full 25 minutes of the fight? I remember him taking Condit down in the first round for a few minutes and late in the second, but past that it's abit of a blur. Condit isn't what I'd call a great wrestler, but he is dangerous of his back.

 

I would expect most to go with GSP winning a dominant points decision, I'm just going with the theory of GSP wanting to prove a point and keep it standing. Going to be good as should the co main event.

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From my recollection of the fight, after the big head kick in round 3 GSP took Condit down repeatedly in rounds 4 and 5. I remember Condit pulling off an awesome sweep in one of the later rounds and a half decent triangle attempt but apart from that it was GSP all the way for the last 10 minutes.

 

Condit and Diaz are similar opponents for GSP in many ways. Both dangerous strikers, both solid chins, both have great cardio, both lack a bit in wrestling but they're both really dangerous off their back. The biggest difference is their striking styles. Condit is more unpredictable which is how he was able to land that head kick. Diaz's striking is almost entirely boxing which gives GSP less to worry about.

 

Also, Condit is cooler headed. If a fight isn't going his way he stays focused and keeps at it. If a fight isn't going Diaz's way he loses composure. It cost him big in the middle rounds against Condit for example.

 

These are two of the main reasons I picked Condit to upset GSP but not Diaz.

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OK, Condit vs Hendricks. This is a great fight, only 6 days away and we've barely touched on it. As I type, the poll is currently 14-10 for Hendricks so we're pretty split.

 

12 of the 14 who voted Hendricks picked him by KO, which I understand given what he's done to the likes of Fitch and Kampmann over the last year or so. But I do kind of think Hendricks is being over hyped and slightly overrated. And Condit for me is again being slightly underrated. Condit is a much better striker than Fitch and is harder to hit and harder to finish than Kampmann. He's also a much better striker technically than Hendricks, better at submissions, granite chin and he doesn't go away easily when things get rough (see fights with GSP, Rory, Ellenberger).

 

I'm not discounting the possibility of Hendricks landing another big KO left hand, it would be foolish to, but Condit has the skills to beat him standing or grappling for me. Then again I thought the same with Kampmann.

 

Condit on points for me.

im interested to see what happens when Hendricks finds himself in a position where's clearly losing. Hendricks neglects his wrestling to concentrate on his heavy handed attack, but against a technical guy like Condit who may pick him off on the feet i wanna see if Johnny decides to wrestle. It's a difficult fight to call, i think im leaning on Hendricks.

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I can't split Condit/Hendricks. I always cheer on Condit so I will be again, but Hendricks would be a fresh challenger for the title and he deserves a title fight. I'm leaning towards a Hendricks decision win at the moment but I keep going back and forth on it. Either way I can't see that fight being a disappointment.

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