UFC 158: 'St Pierre vs Diaz'

[jimufctna24]

Diaz pre-fight interview.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yj_Ystewa1A

 

Love his attitude, him and GSP really are total opposites in how they look at things.

[David]

If self-belief won fights Diaz would be the Champion already, wouldn't he? I just don't see anywhere that he can win the fight, barring a fluke (which happened with Serra, so could happen again I guess).

 

He's just not on St-Pierre's level.

[Egg Shen]

i agree Jim, ive always thought GSP would do well against Silva. If GSP came in and wasn't intimidated and fought his fight - which people find hard to do against Anderson, which is partly down to why he's so succesfull - i'd facy GSP to win the fight, and the longer we wait for it the more i lean to GSP.

[jimufctna24]

If self-belief won fights Diaz would be the Champion already, wouldn't he? I just don't see anywhere that he can win the fight, barring a fluke (which happened with Serra, so could happen again I guess).

 

He's just not on St-Pierre's level.

Whilst I see GSP winning, that is a bit too strong a statement in my opinion.

 

Go back and watch the Cyborg fight and how quickly and effortlessly Diaz armbarred Cyborg from the bottom, he also had a favorable position against Condit in the last round of their fight but did not have enough time to work with it. Both Condit and Cyborg are no slouches on the ground.

 

I do not think Diaz will sub GSP, but it is his best chance and it could happen. GSP is going to have to be at his commanding best with his top game.

[David]

I know what you're saying, but there's a world of different between Cyborg and St-Pierre. No one has submitted Georges in almost ten years. Diaz does have a decent ground game, but he's not submitted anyone of note in MMA, has he? Cyborg, Sakurai, Scott Smith & Josh Neer aren't exactly MMA elite, nor were they when Diaz beat them.

 

I think, like a fair amount of guys who have mainly fought outside the UFC post-PRIDE, Diaz reputation and record has been blown out of proportion a little. Granted, he's a decent fighter, but I don't think he's an elite welterweight.

 

I'd personally pick him to lose nine times out of ten against the top guys in the division. Would anyone here actually pick Diaz to beat Hendricks, MacDonald or Maia? I know I certainly wouldn't.

[jimufctna24]

I actually may pick Diaz against Hendricks, who I think is being overrated by some. Rory is a tough one to call as I am not 100% sold on Rory and I would pick Maia against him.

 

Cyborg is not elite but he is meant to have a decent BJJ game, is it in the same league as GSP? No. But the way Diaz applied that armbar and generally has dealt with the ground game in recent times shows he does present some danger. He does have a chance and a better chance than some are giving him. The most likely result is GSP winning a lopsided verdict, but if Diaz subbed him it would not be as shocking as Big Foot over Reem or Mo losing to me.

[David]

The most likely result is GSP winning a lopsided verdict, but if Diaz subbed him it would not be as shocking as Big Foot over Reem or Mo losing to me.

Seriously? I'd rank it right up there with Anderson being stopped personally. St-Pierre has been so dominant (some would argue even more dominant than Anderson) in recent times that for him to lose, never mind actually get subbed, would rank much higher than Overeem and Mo losing.

[jimufctna24]

GSP has shown vulnerability though. Condit knocked him down and he is injury prone. Before that Shields took 2 rounds of him on 2 judges cards (I scored those rounds to GSP, but you get my point) Plus Diaz offers enough of a threat with his submission game and boxing.

 

Big Foot Silva god bless him, has been exposed against the cream of today's Heavies if you see his fights with Cain and Cormier. I did not see any serious threat for him to beat Overeem. Mo was so hyped and meant to be fighting a journeyman, I felt it would be easy nights work.

 

It would be a massive upset if GSP lost, but no bigger than those two.

[wandshogun09]

A year ago I'd have picked Diaz to beat Maia, all day. Back when Maia was half-arsing it against Weidman and neglecting his grappling.

 

Now though, with Maia getting back to his roots and looking fucking great at 170, I'd pick Maia for sure. As good as Diaz is on the ground, Maia would do what he wanted. If Maia wanted to fuck Diaz, I don't think there's much Diaz could do to stop it.

[hbk4life]

A year ago I'd have picked Diaz to beat Maia, all day. Back when Maia was half-arsing it against Weidman and neglecting his grappling.

 

Now though, with Maia getting back to his roots and looking fucking great at 170, I'd pick Maia for sure. As good as Diaz is on the ground, Maia would do what he wanted. If Maia wanted to fuck Diaz, I don't think there's much Diaz could do to stop it.

The last part really made me laugh there

 

I'd take Maia to beat Diaz right now as well. Maia has looked great at 170, especially now he's back to actually using his grappling like you said. Watching Maia box was painful at times, it felt even worse knowing if he could get it to the ground he could win the fight in a number of different ways within seconds, but he didn't seem interested in going to the ground for the majority of his fights before the switch.

 

I have GSP destroying Diaz. I really do agree with David's comment about not seeing anywhere Diaz can win the fight. If Diaz wins I'll easily admit I was totally wrong, but I can't see Diaz hurting GSP anywhere.

[wandshogun09]

I'm expecting a GSP 5 round domination. I've always thought that's how it would go but I'd love to be proven wrong and we get a really great competitive fight.

 

I don't think GSP will be able to put Diaz away. I just think Diaz is too tough. Only way I see GSP getting the fight stopped would be on cuts but a decision is the likely outcome.

 

It will be interesting to see how GSP approaches this one tactically. In the past he's primarily wrestled the strikers (Alves, Hardy) and primarily boxed the grapplers (Shields, Fitch, Koscheck). Diaz is more like Condit and Penn in that he's dangerous everywhere.

 

I think GSP will wrestle this one out though. Wrestling is Diaz's only weak area and although he's a threat off his back, GSP's top game has become almost impenetrable. I think he's less likely to get caught on the ground than if he chooses to mostly strike. And once he establishes his wrestling dominance and has Diaz thinking about the takedown, don't be surprised if GSP outstrikes him as well.

[Ghostface1982]

Cyborg is not elite but he is meant to have a decent BJJ game, is it in the same league as GSP? No. But the way Diaz applied that armbar and generally has dealt with the ground game in recent times shows he does present some danger. He does have a chance and a better chance than some are giving him. The most likely result is GSP winning a lopsided verdict, but if Diaz subbed him it would not be as shocking as Big Foot over Reem or Mo losing to me.

Cyborg has a decent BJJ game but by no stretch is it close to Diaz' or even GSP for that matter. All the Chute Boxe "black belts" are a bit poorer than some of their black belt counterparts in my eyes.

 

GSP also has one of the best bases in MMA, I think Nick will really have a hard time subbing GSP from his guard. Not that it can't happen but I think it's unlikely.

 

I think GSP will wrestle this one out though. Wrestling is Diaz's only weak area and although he's a threat off his back, GSP's top game has become almost impenetrable. I think he's less likely to get caught on the ground than if he chooses to mostly strike. And once he establishes his wrestling dominance and has Diaz thinking about the takedown, don't be surprised if GSP outstrikes him as well.

I think a lot of people under rate GSP's striking game. I wouldn't be surprised at all if GSP out strikes Diaz.

[wandshogun09]

All the Chute Boxe "black belts" are a bit poorer than some of their black belt counterparts in my eyes.

 

Yeah there's probably some truth in that.

 

Wanderlei and Shogun are Chute Boxe black belts but only have 1 submission win each in a combined 70 odd fights or something. Chute Boxe were an MMA gym but they were a Muay Thai school at heart. The main man Rudimar Fedrigo was a Muay Thai guy, as was/is Rafael Cordeiro. And Pele and Ninja were primarily strikers as well.

 

Anderson doesn't count because he wasn't a black belt in the Chute Boxe days, he got his black belt from the Nogs after he defected to BTT.

 

I've seen enough of Wandy's ground game to know he's really good though. Especially defensively, top grapplers like Arona, Yoshida and Sakuraba could do nothing with him really bar stifle him. If he'd wanted to and switched things up more I think he could have got quite a few submissions on his record,

[Egg Shen]

I'm expecting a GSP 5 round domination. I've always thought that's how it would go but I'd love to be proven wrong and we get a really great competitive fight.

 

I don't think GSP will be able to put Diaz away. I just think Diaz is too tough. Only way I see GSP getting the fight stopped would be on cuts but a decision is the likely outcome.

 

It will be interesting to see how GSP approaches this one tactically. In the past he's primarily wrestled the strikers (Alves, Hardy) and primarily boxed the grapplers (Shields, Fitch, Koscheck). Diaz is more like Condit and Penn in that he's dangerous everywhere.

 

I think GSP will wrestle this one out though. Wrestling is Diaz's only weak area and although he's a threat off his back, GSP's top game has become almost impenetrable. I think he's less likely to get caught on the ground than if he chooses to mostly strike. And once he establishes his wrestling dominance and has Diaz thinking about the takedown, don't be surprised if GSP outstrikes him as well.

the fact that GSP has been training with Lucian Bute leads me to believe that hes going to try and box Diaz.

[wandshogun09]

He's been training with Bute? Interesting, I didn't know that.

 

I still think he'll see less risk in the ground and take it there mostly. He's probably just worked with Bute to tighten up his boxing but I can't see him choosing a boxing heavy strategy myself. Maybe he will though, his jab could cause Diaz some problems with Diaz's face forward, hands down, wide punches approach we've seen in the past.