UFC on FOX 5: 'Henderson vs Diaz'

[jimufctna24]

I don't know. You might be right. On pure skill I think Vera's a better striker than Gustafsson but he's too inconsistent and often not aggressive enough.

 

Like I said, I like what I've seen of Gustafsson. I think he's got serious potential but we won't know for sure until Dec 8th. This is the big test for him in my eyes. Thiago Silva is good but he was coming off a massive layoff and a back injury. And Shogun is a better all around fighter than Thiago anyway.

Yeah its speculation at this point, sorry if I came across like I was stating fact.

 

I forget how good Vera was/is/could have been. If Gusty can progress he has the physical advantages to be Jones biggest threat, its just if he has it in him to use those advantages.

 

I am a Shogun fan, but with MMA if its a young lion vs a vet, I usually pick the young lion based on how fast MMA changes. It bites you in the backside occasionally, like when I picked Schaub over Nog (I have never been so pleased to be wrong), but most of the time the up and comer slays the vet.

 

I do not think Shogun is way over the hill, but I think wear and tear will catch up with him, I hope not but its just a hunch.

 

Edit: Anyone of the 9 people who voted for Bendo want to state their case why he will win over the weekend? I fancy a debate come Monday

[wandshogun09]

Yeah its speculation at this point, sorry if I came across like I was stating fact.

 

Nah I knew what you meant. It's pretty much all guesswork until we see him in with a legit top 205er. Which Shogun undoubtedly still is even with all his physical setbacks. If Gustafsson beats Shogun he's arrived with the big boys.

 

I do not think Shogun is way over the hill, but I think wear and tear will catch up with him, I hope not but its just a hunch.

 

You'd think it has to at some point. His last 2 fights were brutal. You don't want many fights like that in your career. Certainly not back to back. It's great for the spectators but there's a price to pay for that and it for sure takes a toll physically.

 

Edit: Anyone of the 9 people who voted for Bendo want to state their case why he will win over the weekend? I fancy a debate come Monday

 

I'll have a bash.

 

I'll start off by saying I can see the argument for Nate here. I see the logic, Frankie had Benson figured out in their second fight. Frankie beat him to the punch and outworked him for the majority of the fight. Despite what the scorecards said. So you'd think Nate also being a very good boxer but also being a lot taller than Frankie would give him a clear route to win.

 

Here's my problem with that. Frankie had one thing Nate doesn't. Frankie had/has excellent wrestling. This is a man who despite being a natural featherweight, was able to take down Benson, take down Penn repeatedly (a man known for his legendary takedown defence) and produced highlight reel slams on Gray Maynard. These are men capable of fighting at 170 and in Penn's case he has been a champion there. So Frankie can wrestle his arse off. This is Nate's weakest area.

 

Wrestling - Advantage Henderson

Diaz, has certainly improved his takedown defence, he's shown recently that he can be effective in nullifying solid attempts by the likes of Jim Miller who is a good wrestler. But I don't think that's enough. If Benson decides he wants to take Nate down I think he can. The Diaz kryptonite has always been wrestlers and Benson is a good wrestler who is also a big enough 155er to give Nate some problems in my opinion.

 

 

Look at the guys Nate has lost to at 155 in the UFC. Maynard, Guida, Stevenson. All of them are good wrestlers. Stevenson was able to muscle Nate around.

 

 

Clay and Gray didn't dominate Nate or anything and a lot of people thought Nate won those fights. But one thing's for sure he struggled more with that gruelling type of wrestling/clinch battle than he ever does against strikers. He wasn't half as effective with his boxing in those fights. Clay was able to stifle Nate against the cage a lot. Even if he wasn't doing a lot it shut Nate's game down for most of the fight. Admittedly I don't remember much of the Maynard fight.

 

Even Nate's run at 170, it was the same style that fucked him up again. He beat the strikers like Rory Markham and Marcus Davis impressively. When he came up against guys who could take him down and most importantly stay out of his submissions, he struggled. Dong Hyun Kim and Rory MacDonald were able to use that to win the points game.

 

So while Diaz might have improved I don't think we can declare his suspect defensive wrestling totally fixed, based off the strength of the Jim Miller fight alone. And I think Benson's wrestling will be much more effective against Nate than it was against Edgar for the reasons I've given above.

 

 

Submissions - Advantage Diaz slightly

Technically I'd give Nate the edge here. Overall I think his skillset in BJJ trumps Henderson's.

 

 

But can he submit Benson? The man with the rubber neck and limbs? I'm not sure about that. Benson has shown fantastic submission defence and ability to escape over the years. He's also shown he can attack very well himself with BJJ. I very much doubt he'd catch Nate but he's certainly no whitebelt. And he not only knows how to survive while in a submission, he's good at escaping and his ground and pound is very good as well...

 

 

Nate has the skills to tap him but I don't think it's the likely outcome. Benson knows enough to stay out of serious danger in the submission department I think.

 

 

Striking - Advantage Diaz

If Diaz can keep this one on the feet then I think he maximises his chances. Benson's tough, he's shown that in his wars with Cerrone, Miller, Guida, Frankie etc. But I don't think he's faced someone who can push him like Diaz can in the striking.

 

 

Benson's got some effective stand up himself but the reach of Diaz combined with the advantage he should have with his hands gives him the nod in a striking match for me. Benson has been dropped in his last few fights as well.

 

Even in the stand up though, Benson's not a pushover. He does have some very good kicks which is something both Diaz brothers don't really block much. He has good knees as well.

 

 

Even off his back his striking is dangerous

 

But if it's mostly a striking match I give Diaz the edge.

 

Cardio

Tough one. They both have incredible stamina. Benson's a proven 5 round fighter whereas Nate hasn't gone past 3 yet. But the Diaz brothers are known for their cardio. It's like another limb to them. I don't think either really has a clear edge here but we don't know for sure. A lot of fighters who don't usually gas out have buckled under the Diaz pace.

 

Overall

Basically I don't see this one being finished either way. I don't really see how Benson stops Nate and I don't think Nate will be able to put Benson away with a submission. Very slight chance that Diaz gets to Benson with his pace and stops him on an accumulation of shots in the late rounds but I think a decision is most likely here. And for Diaz I think he's not likely to win the points game here. He probably needs a finish.

 

When predicting this fight I just can't shake the image of Diaz being stifled against the cage, or on the ground, pretty much every time he's faced a strong wrestler with tight BJJ defence.

 

I'd love to see Diaz win because I'm a fan of him and his brother. Two of the most exciting fighters in the sport. But my head tells me the bible thumper takes this on points. It's been shown numerous times that the way to beat a Diaz is by staying close to offset the reach, wrestling a lot, taking them down and as long as you have the skills to stay out of danger you can shut them down en route to a decision. Easier said than done but that's the way I see it.

 

Henderson by decision for me.

[Bus Surfer]

A very nice writeup and breakdown there, Wand.

 

I'm hoping for a Diaz win. If this was 3 rounds, I'd go Benson Decision, but I'm hoping the extra rounds will leave Nate with enough room to get his boxing going and maybe wear Henderson down. Not many can keep pace with the Diaz brothers once they get the rhythm going.

 

It's a weird thought, but if Diaz wins the belt and subsequently fights 5 rounders, he'd be in a much more advantageous position than when he was chasing the belt fighting three rounds, IMO. As Wand pointed out, his UFC losses consist of decisions from stronger Wrestlers. With him being durable and hard to finish, 5 round fights should be a benefit to him.

 

Whatever happens, it'll be a fun fight. The whole thing is loaded and could potentially be card of the year on paper.

[wandshogun09]

Good point. 5 rounds benefits Nate's style in a lot of ways. More time for his pace to take effect.

 

That's one of the most interesting things about this fight for me. Benson has been in some tremendous high pace fights (Cerrone 1, Pettis, Guida, Edgar 1) and was able to keep a pace going consistently. And these were fights where he didn't have it all his own way. He was in some rough spots in all 4 of those examples and didn't falter. He won 3 of them and the Pettis fight was neck and neck right up until the Showtime kick in my opinion.

 

He hasn't dealt with a Diaz pace though. But that doesn't necessarily mean he can't either. Fascinating fight.

 

If Nate does win though, I agree, 5 rounds should help him. As you say he's hard to finish, and he usually holds a cardio advantage. Interesting way of looking at it. I'd actually pick him to beat most of the top 155ers if he gets past Benson.

 

I'd fucking kill to see Nate Diaz vs Anthony Pettis.

[Bus Surfer]

If Nate does win though, I agree, 5 rounds should help him. As you say he's hard to finish, and he usually holds a cardio advantage. Interesting way of looking at it. I'd actually pick him to beat most of the top 155ers if he gets past Benson.

 

I'd fucking kill to see Nate Diaz vs Anthony Pettis.

 

That would be great. I'd also like to see Diaz go against Joe Lauzon too. Fireworks.

 

I'm a Diaz fan, so I'm probably biased, but looking at his losses at 155lbs (Maynard Dec, Guida S/Dec, Stevenson Dec) I would probably pick him against all three of those guys over 5 rounds. I'd also go on to say he's a much better fighter now than he was then, not to say the others aren't, but Diaz's last two efforts at Lightweight against Cerrone and Miller were both very impressive showings. Granted, those guys aren't wrestlers, But Nate really showed he can shut guys down. His constant pressure can break you.

 

I've said before, I like Benson as a fighter, but he's not really got that spark about him. I think Diaz as champ at Lightweight would be fantastic, but that's the Pro wrestling fan in me. I'll stop now before I wake David

[Egg Shen]

BJ Penn is in shape

 

lil video posted from BJPenn.com, seems the rumors are true, BJ is in great shape. Can't wait for this fight.

[METAL ON METAL]

Fantastic breakdown, Wand, hard to argue with any of it. I'm hoping Nate wins but I think Bendo will win a close decision (3 rounds to 2).

 

In my mind its either going to go two ways, an early KO for Diaz or going the distance for Bendo.

[Supremo]

BJ Penn is in shape

 

lil video posted from BJPenn.com, seems the rumors are true, BJ is in great shape. Can't wait for this fight.

That's great to see. I'd love to see BJ get the win and come back full-time. The sport really misses him.

[pryko]

No argument from me regarding the Diaz vs Bendo breakdown, it's absolutly spot-on.

 

However I am 100% behind Diaz.

[Shane O' Mac Version 2]

BJ Penn is in shape

 

lil video posted from BJPenn.com, seems the rumors are true, BJ is in great shape. Can't wait for this fight.

That's great to see. I'd love to see BJ get the win and come back full-time. The sport really misses him.

Nice to see Penn is dedicated, but it's not like he's returning from a lengthy retirement. He's been inactive just over a year, almost the same amount of time that Hendo's been inactive.

 

Short notice fight booked for UFC on FOX 5: with John Cholish injured, the UFC have re-booked Jeremy Stephens vs. Yves Edwards. Let's hope Stephens can avoid arrest this time.

[wandshogun09]

BJ Penn is in shape

 

lil video posted from BJPenn.com, seems the rumors are true, BJ is in great shape. Can't wait for this fight.

 

I really hope BJ shocks everyone. He looks great there. He'll still be undersized though no matter how good condition he's in. But if nothing else at least it shows he's well up for this and when he's in that frame of mind and he's in shape he can be a scary fighter.

 

Short notice fight booked for UFC on FOX 5: with John Cholish injured, the UFC have re-booked Jeremy Stephens vs. Yves Edwards. Let's hope Stephens can avoid arrest this time.

 

Glad to see that. That's another great fight added to the card. The injury bug has actually added to this already tremendous card in my opinion. Both Siver/Phan and Edwards/Stephens will be better than the original fights planned with Yagin and Cholish I reckon.

 

I hope Edwards wins this fight. I've been a fan for years plus he has really been fucked about recently. He was meant to fight Stephens in October when all that shit went down with Stephens and the assault charge. Edwards had to wait backstage all night all gloved up in the hopes the fight would still go ahead, only to be told it wouldn't.

 

Then he was supposed to fight Thiago Tavares, that fell through. Then this fight with Cholish came up and then Cholish got injured. Fuck me. He deserves a bit of good fortune.

[David]

BJ Penn is in shape

lil video posted from BJPenn.com, seems the rumors are true, BJ is in great shape. Can't wait for this fight.

That's great to see. I'd love to see BJ get the win and come back full-time. The sport really misses him.

The problem with Penn is that there is nowhere for him to go really, unless he's looking to simply bounce between 155lbs & 170lbs and take special attraction fights. If he wins this fight he isn't going to realistically be considered for a title shot at either weight, and all he'll have done is knock a possible contender out of the picture, which is fair enough I suppose.

 

I don't think he has the hunger anymore, no matter how fit he may look. Hopefully he puts in a decent performance but I'd like to see MacDonald win.

[pryko]

BJ Penn is in shape

lil video posted from BJPenn.com, seems the rumors are true, BJ is in great shape. Can't wait for this fight.

That's great to see. I'd love to see BJ get the win and come back full-time. The sport really misses him.

The problem with Penn is that there is nowhere for him to go really, unless he's looking to simply bounce between 155lbs & 170lbs and take special attraction fights. If he wins this fight he isn't going to realistically be considered for a title shot at either weight, and all he'll have done is knock a possible contender out of the picture, which is fair enough I suppose.

 

I don't think he has the hunger anymore, no matter how fit he may look. Hopefully he puts in a decent performance but I'd like to see MacDonald win.

Do you not think if BJ went back down to 155 and took fights with say Maynard, Cerrone, Lauzon etc he'd not be considered for a title shot at 155 again? The only reason I couldn't see him given another crack at Lightweight would be if Edgar was still champion

[David]

Do you not think if BJ went back down to 155 and took fights with say Maynard, Cerrone, Lauzon etc he'd not be considered for a title shot at 155 again? The only reason I couldn't see him given another crack at Lightweight would be if Edgar was still champion

I don't see him beating either Maynard or Cerrone for starters, so he wouldn't get anywhere near a title shot in my opinion.

[wandshogun09]

I think BJ would have a very good shot at beating Maynard and Cerrone.

 

The good thing about BJ possibly dropping back to 155, aside from the obvious that it's the right weight class for his frame, would be all the fresh and potentially excellent fights there for him now. When he returned to 170 a couple of years ago he was in an odd position where he'd beat pretty much everyone in the division but was 0-2 against the champ. Not the case anymore.

 

Bendo, Nate Diaz, Cerrone, Pettis, Maynard, Melendez, Lauzon, possibly Alvarez, a possible superfight with Aldo...the list goes on. All new and interesting match ups.

 

And BJ is such a legend and name in that division he'd probably only need 1 or 2 solid wins to be in contention. Especially now, as pryko says, Edgar is out of the way. I don't see why he couldn't make another run at lightweight. Even if you don't think he'll win that doesn't mean it shouldn't be considered.

 

The only problem is I'm not sure BJ wants to go back to 155.