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UFC 148: Silva vs. Sonnen II Thread


The Natural

Who wins and how?  

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I think Takase actually subbed Anderson with a triangle if I remember right. Wouldn't that be a shocker, If Chael by some miracle won by triangle? That would be a big fuck you to everyone, including me, who have brought up his lack of resistance to triangle chokes.

Shit yes he did on second thought. He set up the triangle from the top though and almost had him with a kimura before that.

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In regards to Anderson submitting Chael.

 

I get that Chael so far has not learnt his lesson, but surely this time he has,

 

Forrest Griffin Submission (triangle choke) IFC: Global Domination Sep 6, 2003

Jeremy Horn Submission (guillotine choke) SF 6: Battleground in Reno Sep 23, 2004

Renato Sobral Submission (triangle choke) UFC 55 Oct 7, 2005

Jeremy Horn Submission (armbar) UFC 60 May 27, 2006

Paulo Filho Submission (armbar) WEC 31 Dec 12, 2007

Demian Maia Submission (triangle choke) UFC 95 Feb 21, 2009

Anderson Silva Submission (triangle armbar) UFC 117 Aug 7, 2010

 

Being that we are in 2012 Chael is due another loss via submission. He has not learnt his lesson is near 10 years so never will, he has done well not to fall into to some interviewers lap and put himself in a triangle just to get it out his system.

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It's a good job Silva vs Sonnen got moved to 148 now with Cruz/Faber being called off. That would have really hurt any other card but that card is mega stacked anyway. If Faber vs Barao gets made then the card is just as good imo. Cruz vs Faber 3 will happen down the line whatever happens.

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The first fight was close, with Silva getting the late win. Was it down to Anderson's rib injury that he sustained before the fight? Or is Sonnen basically his kryptonite? When asked about the injury Silva & Ed Soares had this to say at the time;

 

"It was really close because the doctors didn
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I really like Barao, probably my favourite Bantamweight and like David said he's legit. They've been raving about him in Brazil for ages apparently. I love that he lost his first fight on a split and pretty much went 'fuck this' and has gone unbeaten in about 30 fights ever since.

 

He's great to watch aswell. Nasty striking, slick BJJ, his takedown defence is outstanding and he'll throw in the flashy stuff like spinning back kicks and flying knees. I'm really glad I got to see him fight live once at least.

 

I think he'll seize this chance and beat Faber. There's only two 135ers who I see having a good chance of dethroning Dominick Cruz. Barao and current Bellator champ Eduardo Dantas. Funnily enough, both fight out of Nova Uniao.

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The closer this fight gets the more I think Chael has a shot, I am even leaning towards picking him.

 

Silva is meant to be injured coming in with his knee, I have heard rumblings 3rd hand that he is very brittle these days. Sonnen may win due to being the fresher fighter and having less miles on the clock. His style does not rely upon reflexes and countering like Silva and more wresltling, a approach that has seen guys like Couture and Hendo fight well into there 40's as he still has the strength to wrestle at a high level even into his mid 30's.

 

With his age and injuries, it would seem Silva maybe slowing down, speed and reflexes will go with age, look at Muhammed Ali's later days. Strikers and brawlers do not have a long shelf life, their chin will not last, all those years sparring with Chute Boxe may finally catch up to him just like it has to Shogun and Wand.

 

Silva as I have said is in my view the best of all time, but I think this could be his moment in which miles on the clock and age catch up to him, it was bound to happen some day just like it did to Liddel and Fedor and even eventually Couture.

 

Sonnen wins on points or maybe by doctor stoppage late on is what I am going with now, I may change my mind again though.

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Decided to rewatch Sonnen-Silva I, first time since it happened...

 

Re-watching it has reinforced that i believe Chael will win it this time.

 

The first round is a wash, i don't think a single person alive thought Sonnen would stun Silva standing, the fact that he did it 2-3 times was startling, i say stun instead of rock, because i don't believe that Sonnen was hurting Silva, more a case of just suprising him. After the takedown, Sonnen easily won a slight scramble and stayed on top the entire round landing some big shots, 10-8 Sonnen. I notice Anderson point at his rib as he walks back to his corner.

 

2nd round starts with Anderson coming out firing, there's urgency there but Sonnen goes straight through him when Anderson attempts a lazy flying knee and takes him down. Anderson threatened more off his back, threw up an armbar and triangle attempt as well as trying for a heel hook, nothing comes close, Sonnen's ground and pound isn't as damaging (outside of a big left hand) but he controls pretty much the entire round, 10-9.

 

sonnen-st.jpg

 

3rd round, Anderson comes out firing big shots then circles rapidly, at this point he's clearly weary of the takedown. Sonnen simply walks him down shoots and takes Silva down with relative ease. The rounds more of a stalemate where Anderson simply tries to hold Chael, Sonnen stays heavy and continues to throw annoying short shots. Anderson is looking for stuff from the bottom but Chael stays so tight to him Anderson's offence is ineffective, 10-9 Chael. Kind of a stunned silence falls over the audience at this point.

 

Anderson looks very dejected between rounds.

 

4th round, Anderson starts well throwing strikes, it seems like pure desperation mode, he throws big shots and half drops Chael with a standing elbow. Anderson momentarily takes top position but Chael reverses him and and it's rinse and repeat at this stage. Chael starts to flirt dangerously in Anderson's guard though in this round, posturing up more and not staying as tight to Silva who never really goes for a submission but in hindsight feels is setting the trap, Chael continues to pepper away with strikes. 10-9 Chael who amazingly looks the more beaten up of the two.

 

5th round, Anderson comes out doing that bouncy stance he does trying to mesmorize Chael to stand in front of him like he seems to be able too with other opponents, Chael doesn't the bait throws a straight left and for me legit drops Silva, probably the only time in his career that Anderson has been dropped to my knowledge (anyone clarify?), looked like a grazing shot behind the ear, Rogan later says it was a slip but i rewatched it like 5 times and it looks like the shot cause Anderson's leg to go from under him. Chael attempts and arm triangle which Anderson defends and it ends up with Chael back in Silva's guard. I think Anderson was waiting to throw the triangle up for at least a minute before he did, Chael's stopped doing anything damaging at this point and is just asking for it to be honest. Chael was again clearly winning the round but in the final 2 rounds he kinda stopped staying so close to Silva and allowed Anderson to work from the bottom.

 

Chael_Sonnen_vs_Anderson_Silva_broken_rib1.jpg

 

The 'did he, didn't he' tap situation kinda ruined the end of the fight but it was an incredible finish.

 

What was intresting, and has pretty much been forgotten is the show of respect both guys show each other in the cage after the fight. Chael's a fucking showman, he has no legitimate ill will towards Anderson, he was all class after the fight.

 

My take on the rematch remains the same though, i think if Anderson is going to win it's gonna have to be the same as he did here, from the bottom. I cannot see Chael not taking him down, Anderson's always gonna have a shot at knocking him out standing but Chael's seeming lack of respect for Anderson's striking means he's gonna commit to his takedown (something other Anderson opponents simply didn't do). Anderson will know this and it'll stop him from getting his smooth striking game off, it happened in this fight, Anderson was throwing desperate punches and kicks because he was trying to stop Chael coming forward and it simply didn't work...now i know something may land and end the night but i see Chael chin seeing him through.

 

I know everyone points to the rib injury and the TRT as the reasons for why this fight played out as it did, but it hasn't changed my opinion on what i think will happen.

 

I'm taking Chael by decision in a fight that looks very similar to the first.

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The thing is Ebb, if Anderson had damaged ribs (and from what's been reported they were damaged enough for his doctor to not want him to fight) his entire game would have been affected.

 

Sonnen's only chance of winning is to continually score the takedowns and hope that Silva doesn't catch him either on the way in, or on the floor. With 25 minutes of fight time I don't see Anderson not catching him at least once.

 

I still see this fight going ten minutes maximum, with Silva catching him with strikes and throwing on a submission after the fight goes to the floor.

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