UFC 148: Silva vs. Sonnen II Thread

[jimufctna24]

I have to agree, I will not rule out a Sonnen points win or another epic fight which has twists and turns, but the most likely outcome is that Silva will stuff a few takedowns and maybe get thrown up against the cage for a few minutes, but ultimatly land standing and out Sonnen away in the 2nd or 3rd round.

 

I do not see Sonnen having much fun standing with Silva this time, whilst Silva may not want to risk the clinch game he still has that outstanding outside boxing that he can/will use to have Sonnen in trouble. I see this fight being like the Okami fight but maybe a bit more competative.

 

Annoyingly the arena they are now doing the Brazil show in seats 14,000 only 2000 less than where they have now gone in Vegas. Maybe the UFC did have researvations about the safety of Sonnen or they felt Vegas would be the better venue with the soccer stadium out of the question. Maybe Vegas will attract more attention and press coverage, who knows.

 

Still mega pumped either way.

[METAL ON METAL]

People are still putting way too much faith in the whole 'Anderson was injured - he would've finished him straight away if healthy' spiel that gets thrown up. Chael was injured as well, its an equal playing field.

 

Having healthy ribs doesn't automatically make you able to stuff takedowns and will do little in way of helping you keep your distance on the feet. People are playing that up way too much - probably what Sonnen hopes for people to do really.

[wandshogun09]

I have to agree, I will not rule out a Sonnen points win or another epic fight which has twists and turns, but the most likely outcome is that Silva will stuff a few takedowns and maybe get thrown up against the cage for a few minutes, but ultimatly land standing and out Sonnen away in the 2nd or 3rd round.

 

I do not see Sonnen having much fun standing with Silva this time, whilst Silva may not want to risk the clinch game he still has that outstanding outside boxing that he can/will use to have Sonnen in trouble. I see this fight being like the Okami fight but maybe a bit more competative.

 

Annoyingly the arena they are now doing the Brazil show in seats 14,000 only 2000 less than where they have now gone in Vegas. Maybe the UFC did have researvations about the safety of Sonnen or they felt Vegas would be the better venue with the soccer stadium out of the question. Maybe Vegas will attract more attention and press coverage, who knows.

 

Still mega pumped either way.

 

I'm not counting out the possibility of a Spider KO, he's the best striker in the sport for me so it's always a possibility but I can't see Anderson stuffing Chael's takedowns. I don't recall him stuffing one takedown in the first fight and I doubt that was all down to the TRT.

 

Not saying this is what you're saying but I think too many people are thinking that because Chael struggled taking down Bisping that he'll have to stand with Anderson. But Bisping's defensive wrestling is one area where he's better than Anderson Silva. You only have to look at how hard Rashad had to work to keep him on his back, Bisping's takedown defense and scrambling back to his feet is one his biggest strengths.

 

Anderson's never really had great defensive wrestling, he's stuffed sloppy takedowns from the likes of Maia and Leites but Sonnen's a different animal and he goes for takedowns like his life depends on it. And it's still the weakest area of Anderson's game, maybe its because he's so confident in his guard he concedes the takedown more easily. But TRT or not, if there's one thing I'd expect in this fight it's that Anderson will be put on his back at some point and probably often until he catches Chael again in a submission.

 

Still think a Silva submission is the most likely end to this rematch. You'd think not if Sonnen's learned from his mistakes but judging on his past fights he doesn't. He just loves getting triangled and Anderson's triangle is lethal.

[David]

People are still putting way too much faith in the whole 'Anderson was injured - he would've finished him straight away if healthy' spiel that gets thrown up. Chael was injured as well, its an equal playing field.

 

Having healthy ribs doesn't automatically make you able to stuff takedowns and will do little in way of helping you keep your distance on the feet. People are playing that up way too much - probably what Sonnen hopes for people to do really.

Personally, I don't think Anderson would have won "straight away", but I do think he'd have finished him before the fifth frame. If Anderson comes in fully fit & ready to fight there's few (if any) in his weight class who can even compete with him.

 

As for Sonnen being injured, wasn't he competing whilst taking PED's at the time?

[Dead Mike]

People are still putting way too much faith in the whole 'Anderson was injured - he would've finished him straight away if healthy' spiel that gets thrown up. Chael was injured as well, its an equal playing field.

 

Having healthy ribs doesn't automatically make you able to stuff takedowns and will do little in way of helping you keep your distance on the feet. People are playing that up way too much - probably what Sonnen hopes for people to do really

 

Have you seen the 'Like Water' documentary? If Silva wasn't in Dana's bad books & the UFC's 'new' health insurance policy was in place at the time of their first fight Anderson would've dropped out of that for sure. We saw how many fighters pulled out of fights when the health policy changed, prior to that people were fighting through injuries they wouldn't dream of now. I don't remember any talk of Sonnen being injured either? Only word that he a cold/flu symptoms.

It wasn't an 'equal playing field'...that's why Sonnen got banned from competing for a year.

[jimufctna24]

I'm not counting out the possibility of a Spider KO, he's the best striker in the sport for me so it's always a possibility but I can't see Anderson stuffing Chael's takedowns. I don't recall him stuffing one takedown in the first fight and I doubt that was all down to the TRT.

 

Not saying this is what you're saying but I think too many people are thinking that because Chael struggled taking down Bisping that he'll have to stand with Anderson. But Bisping's defensive wrestling is one area where he's better than Anderson Silva. You only have to look at how hard Rashad had to work to keep him on his back, Bisping's takedown defense and scrambling back to his feet is one his biggest strengths.

 

Anderson's never really had great defensive wrestling, he's stuffed sloppy takedowns from the likes of Maia and Leites but Sonnen's a different animal and he goes for takedowns like his life depends on it. And it's still the weakest area of Anderson's game, maybe its because he's so confident in his guard he concedes the takedown more easily. But TRT or not, if there's one thing I'd expect in this fight it's that Anderson will be put on his back at some point and probably often until he catches Chael again in a submission.

 

Still think a Silva submission is the most likely end to this rematch. You'd think not if Sonnen's learned from his mistakes but judging on his past fights he doesn't. He just loves getting triangled and Anderson's triangle is lethal.

I can agree Bisping is stronger and has better defensive wrestling that Silva, but I think Anderson this time will only have to keep it standing for a few rounds. It depends on how early/well Sonnen shoots in, Silva will know the only way he is going to loses this time is if Sonnen takes him down. I think like he did with Okami, Silva will stay on the outside, not throw kicks or give Sonnen many openings for a takedown.

 

If Sonnen can trade and mix things up with his takedowns than maybe he can have a chance, but I do not see this fight going to the ground as much this time. Sonnen throwing caution to the wind and shooting in from a distance may also open him up to knees as well.

 

There is a question mark on if Silva can defend takedowns from decent wrestlers though, I can understand that, but come fight night I think he will be able to this time.

[David]

Even in Chael get's Silva down, he's going to be in constant danger of being submitted. Either standing or on the ground, I simply can't see Sonnen being able to take Silva 25 minutes to grind out the win.

 

He's going to get caught at some point.

[wandshogun09]

Yeah I can see that. The one difference between Sonnen and Okami though is Sonnen won't be intimidated to go for broke. When Okami was hit by Anderson he froze, when Chael was hit he went on the attack. That's the big difference.

 

I can see your points though. It's what makes this such a fascinating fight. Anderson can finish Chael standing or on the ground, if Chael wins I think it will have to be on points but there is a clear path to win for Chael. It's way easier said than done obviously. The great thing about the fight is that both are great at the others weaknesses so it's not easy to call.

 

I'm settling on the sub though. For a few reasons;

 

-I don't think Anderson will be able to stop the takedowns

-Chael's never been KO'd before (probably cos he's got the wrestling to take it to the ground if he's rocked) but has lost a bunch by submission

-Chael's triangle fetish

-Anderson's dangerous guard and in particular a really good triangle

 

I can see this playing out so similar to the first one that some people will be calling fix. I just feel like if they fought 100 times about 50% would be Silva by sub, about 30% Sonnen by decision and the other 20% Silva by KO.

 

Bit of maths for you there. Have that Vorderman.

 

Even in Chael get's Silva down, he's going to be in constant danger of being submitted. Either standing or on the ground, I simply can't see Sonnen being able to take Silva 25 minutes to grind out the win.

 

He's going to get caught at some point.

 

Yeah that's what I'm saying. I just think it's more likely a submission that ends the fight. 25 minutes is too long for Chael to stay out of danger. 3 rounds maybe but 5 is gonna be a bastard to pull off.

 

On Anderson's rib injury, it is a fact that he was injured. What the extent of the injury was is anyone's guess but as Dead Mike says you can see the pain he's in in 'Like Water' which was filmed before the Chael fight. So I don't think it was excuse making. Anderson has nothing to make excuses about anyway, he won the fight.

[jimufctna24]

In regards to Anderson submitting Chael.

 

I get that Chael so far has not learnt his lesson, but surely this time he has, I think that Chael if he gets Silva down will be doing his best to pass to half guard and side mount. He has brought in Vinny Malgares as well, so we shall see if Chael has finally learnt his lesson. I kinda want to say he has because it beggers belief that he would be that silly to get caught again, but I will not rule it out.

 

Chael is indeed fearless, but in the past against Silva that has been some fighters undoing. Look at Forrest Griffin, if you are over aggressive against Silva he can counter and put you away with relative ease, I know he got away with it in the first fight and Okami's approach of being scared is no better , but I feel if Chael starts diving in for takedowns like he did last time he may eat a knee.

 

I could be wrong here but I think Chael got knocked out by Terry Martin from what I read. The corner stopped the fight after Chael was out or somthing like that. That was a while back though and I can see why people would bet for submisison as the likely outcome.

[wandshogun09]

I forgot about the Terry Martin fight. Yeah that was scored a TKO but it was stopped in the corner. Just looked at Chael's record and he also has a stoppage loss due to cuts in one of his fights with Jeremy Horn.

 

Still, he's yet to actually be KO'd. If anyone's likely to do that it's Anderson Silva. We'll see. Maybe Anderson will want a KO this time since the submission didn't shut Chael up? Let's face it he'll be going for the finish non stop standing and on the ground cos he'll know it will be hard to win a decision against Chael with how the judges score for takedowns and also how the last fight went.

 

Chael is doing the right things though it seems. If Vinny Magalhaes can't help him with his BJJ then there's no hope.

[lambyUK]

I personally already noticed massive improvements in Chael's game, most notably against Brian Stann. You could see his takedowns were down in far more methodical way than in the past. Even during the moment he picked Stann up for the slam, he turned him on the way down in order to land side control.

[David]

I personally already noticed massive improvements in Chael's game, most notably against Brian Stann. You could see his takedowns were down in far more methodical way than in the past. Even during the moment he picked Stann up for the slam, he turned him on the way down in order to land side control.

There's no doubt he'll have been trying to patch up the holes in his game, but I personally don't think he's going to have done nearly enough to combat probably the best MMA fighter of all time.

 

Sonnen had his chance to win in their first fight. The stars were alligned for him then, with Anderson's injury and Chaels juicing. This time I have a feeling that Silva will be fitter and more able to beat Sonnen.

[Egg Shen]

ive said from the start that i think Chael takes the rematch. Like it was mentioned above it's the fact that Chael isn't intimidated by Silva that leads me to believe that he'll do pretty much the same as what he did in the first fight. There's clearly a way to beat Silva and i think Chael has the best skillset to do it, and unless Anderson lands on Chael coming in i'm picking Chael to pick up a unanimous decision. It's gonna be intense.

[jimufctna24]

It has crossed my mind that maybe if Sonnen can get side-control late on and after taking some of the wind out of Silva, maybe he should try and submit Silva like he did Stann with a arm triangle.

 

Now submitting Silva is nowhere near as easy as submitting Stann, but I do not think it is impossible. Whilst he has improved, Silva did get subbed in Pride when Takase got on top and arm-triangled him. Sonnen using brute strength more than technique could maybe pull it of as unlikely as it sounds, if he can damage Silva by consistantly scoring takedowns and laying on top taking the energy out of Silva.

 

I think that is the only way Sonnen can finish, I do not see him knocking out Silva standing or his GnP stopping Anderson, even with his broken rib Silva and his corner did not quit between rounds last time, so I think we can rule that out.

 

I still favor Silva, but I can see that Sonnen does have ways he can win. I would estimate that Silva would win 7 or 8 times if they fought 10 times. Similiar to what Wand said above.

[wandshogun09]

I think Takase actually subbed Anderson with a triangle if I remember right. Wouldn't that be a shocker, If Chael by some miracle won by triangle? That would be a big fuck you to everyone, including me, who have brought up his lack of resistance to triangle chokes.

 

It won't happen though.

 

I can't see Chael stopping Anderson. He'll do what he always does, try to overwhelm and dominate for as long as he can. He'll do what he does, it's up to Anderson to try to stop him. I think he can in 25 minutes but if Chael plays a more cautious game going for points instead of going nuts in Silva's guard then I reckon he can win a decision. It might not be as exciting as the first fight but a win is a win, especially in a title fight.