Pick Your Power Game Thread

[Mafia Scum Scum]

Quoting this again because people don't understand probability. The odds of two people choosing the same number really isn't that unusual. It's pretty much a 50/50 chance.

 

It's been said that it's a 'strange coincidence', and the coincidence is being used as a reason for people to push suspicion of me. Again, I encourage people to read this post.

 

Let's clear something up. 1 in 16 chance of picking the first number. Then, another 1 in 15 chance for the second number. So a 1 in 240, or 0.4% chance of Lion and ChrisB picking the same numbers independently. This is only a factor if one of them are lynched and flip scum.

 

That's potentially cherry-picking probability. Let me explain (and I can't do the maths confidently, but I do understand some of the concepts behind it, so if I set it up and someone else could actually tell the odds, I'd appreciate it).

 

That's the probability that (specifically) me and Lion would pick the same numbers. The question I feel you should be asking is "WHAT ARE THE ODDS THAT TWO PEOPLE IN THE GAME WOULD PICK THE SAME NUMBERS" (clarity, not shouting). That's a hell of a lot higher.

 

From my point of view, the odds that someone would pick my numbers are pretty remote. However, the chances that two people in the game would be likely to pick the same numbers are pretty good.

 

As an example of the kind of thing I'm talking about, This link explains that the likelihood of two people in a football match having the same birthday is about 50/50.

 

Ok, then if I'm getting the math right 1/256 (1 in 16 then 1 in 16, not 1 in 15 because you could choose the same number twice) with 120 events (16 players so (16*15)/2). So a probability of 46.8% that 2 players chose the same set of 2 numbers between 1 and 16.

 

I can't answer for Lion voting for me. I'm not trying to either. But let's PLEASE lose this rubbish that it's some strange coincidence.

 

It could very well be a coincidence, but 50/50 chance, well we all know that is a load of crap!

 

That 50/50 post, when we fully know it is about a 1 in 256 chance, comes across as a very poor defence.

 

I wasn't focusing too much on this, but that post has drawn my attention to this, so rightly or wrongly you have made yourself a top suspect in my eyes.

 

FOS: Chris B

 

Well I am happy to vote for either Lion or Chris B today, but let us make whoever we decide not to vote for be the one to put the final vote in, just in case we risk losing someone important to the bomb.

[Chris B]

Quoting this again because people don't understand probability. The odds of two people choosing the same number really isn't that unusual. It's pretty much a 50/50 chance.

 

It's been said that it's a 'strange coincidence', and the coincidence is being used as a reason for people to push suspicion of me. Again, I encourage people to read this post.

 

Let's clear something up. 1 in 16 chance of picking the first number. Then, another 1 in 15 chance for the second number. So a 1 in 240, or 0.4% chance of Lion and ChrisB picking the same numbers independently. This is only a factor if one of them are lynched and flip scum.

 

That's potentially cherry-picking probability. Let me explain (and I can't do the maths confidently, but I do understand some of the concepts behind it, so if I set it up and someone else could actually tell the odds, I'd appreciate it).

 

That's the probability that (specifically) me and Lion would pick the same numbers. The question I feel you should be asking is "WHAT ARE THE ODDS THAT TWO PEOPLE IN THE GAME WOULD PICK THE SAME NUMBERS" (clarity, not shouting). That's a hell of a lot higher.

 

From my point of view, the odds that someone would pick my numbers are pretty remote. However, the chances that two people in the game would be likely to pick the same numbers are pretty good.

 

As an example of the kind of thing I'm talking about, This link explains that the likelihood of two people in a football match having the same birthday is about 50/50.

 

Ok, then if I'm getting the math right 1/256 (1 in 16 then 1 in 16, not 1 in 15 because you could choose the same number twice) with 120 events (16 players so (16*15)/2). So a probability of 46.8% that 2 players chose the same set of 2 numbers between 1 and 16.

 

I can't answer for Lion voting for me. I'm not trying to either. But let's PLEASE lose this rubbish that it's some strange coincidence.

 

It could very well be a coincidence, but 50/50 chance, well we all know that is a load of crap!

 

That 50/50 post, when we fully know it is about a 1 in 256 chance, comes across as a very poor defence.

 

I wasn't focusing too much on this, but that post has drawn my attention to this, so rightly or wrongly you have made yourself a top suspect in my eyes.

 

FOS: Chris B

 

Well I am happy to vote for either Lion or Chris B today, but let us make whoever we decide not to vote for be the one to put the final vote in, just in case we risk losing someone important to the bomb.

 

 

READ THE SODDING LINK

[Mafia Scum Scum]

Quoting this again because people don't understand probability. The odds of two people choosing the same number really isn't that unusual. It's pretty much a 50/50 chance.

 

It's been said that it's a 'strange coincidence', and the coincidence is being used as a reason for people to push suspicion of me. Again, I encourage people to read this post.

 

Let's clear something up. 1 in 16 chance of picking the first number. Then, another 1 in 15 chance for the second number. So a 1 in 240, or 0.4% chance of Lion and ChrisB picking the same numbers independently. This is only a factor if one of them are lynched and flip scum.

 

That's potentially cherry-picking probability. Let me explain (and I can't do the maths confidently, but I do understand some of the concepts behind it, so if I set it up and someone else could actually tell the odds, I'd appreciate it).

 

That's the probability that (specifically) me and Lion would pick the same numbers. The question I feel you should be asking is "WHAT ARE THE ODDS THAT TWO PEOPLE IN THE GAME WOULD PICK THE SAME NUMBERS" (clarity, not shouting). That's a hell of a lot higher.

 

From my point of view, the odds that someone would pick my numbers are pretty remote. However, the chances that two people in the game would be likely to pick the same numbers are pretty good.

 

As an example of the kind of thing I'm talking about, This link explains that the likelihood of two people in a football match having the same birthday is about 50/50.

 

Ok, then if I'm getting the math right 1/256 (1 in 16 then 1 in 16, not 1 in 15 because you could choose the same number twice) with 120 events (16 players so (16*15)/2). So a probability of 46.8% that 2 players chose the same set of 2 numbers between 1 and 16.

 

I can't answer for Lion voting for me. I'm not trying to either. But let's PLEASE lose this rubbish that it's some strange coincidence.

 

It could very well be a coincidence, but 50/50 chance, well we all know that is a load of crap!

 

That 50/50 post, when we fully know it is about a 1 in 256 chance, comes across as a very poor defence.

 

I wasn't focusing too much on this, but that post has drawn my attention to this, so rightly or wrongly you have made yourself a top suspect in my eyes.

 

FOS: Chris B

 

Well I am happy to vote for either Lion or Chris B today, but let us make whoever we decide not to vote for be the one to put the final vote in, just in case we risk losing someone important to the bomb.

 

 

READ THE SODDING LINK

 

I have looked at it briefly, decided I still don't like your answer, as well as thinking that as you and Lion are bottom of the list we don't risk losing a major role (or any role at all) if we vote for you guys and are wrong.

 

Sorry but that is how I feel.

 

I also didn't like that site and know that it is a one in 256 chance that you drew both the same numbers.

[Chris B]

This is maths. You don't get an opinion. You don't get to feel. It's numbers. I didn't even do the maths - I pointed out where the mistake in thinking was, and Bristep did the maths. If you don't agree with them, check them. Get out a pen and paper, and check them.

 

If you want to ask what the odds are, specifically, that Lion and I would pick the same numbers, that's a different question than asking what the odds are that two people would pick the same numbers. Otherwise, it's like asking 'what are the odds that SMS picked numbers that nobody else picked? That's deeply suspicious'.

 

You don't like that site because you don't understand maths and probability. That's fine. However, you can't then use your understanding of probability as an argument against me.

[Retro Red]

It could very well be a coincidence, but 50/50 chance, well we all know that is a load of crap!

 

That 50/50 post, when we fully know it is about a 1 in 256 chance, comes across as a very poor defence.

 

I wasn't focusing too much on this, but that post has drawn my attention to this, so rightly or wrongly you have made yourself a top suspect in my eyes.

 

FOS: Chris B

 

Well I am happy to vote for either Lion or Chris B today, but let us make whoever we decide not to vote for be the one to put the final vote in, just in case we risk losing someone important to the bomb.

 

It's not a load of crap man, it's math.

 

Ok, then if I'm getting the math right 1/256 (1 in 16 then 1 in 16, not 1 in 15 because you could choose the same number twice) with 120 events (16 players so (16*15)/2). So a probability of 46.8% that 2 players chose the same set of 2 numbers between 1 and 16.

 

SMS in that quote you just included, I went and did the math. There is a 46.8% chance that within a group of 16 people, 2 of them would pick 2 identical numbers between 1 and 16.

[Mafia Scum Scum]

This is maths. You don't get an opinion. You don't get to feel. It's numbers. I didn't even do the maths - I pointed out where the mistake in thinking was, and Bristep did the maths. If you don't agree with them, check them. Get out a pen and paper, and check them.

 

If you want to ask what the odds are, specifically, that Lion and I would pick the same numbers, that's a different question than asking what the odds are that two people would pick the same numbers. Otherwise, it's like asking 'what are the odds that SMS picked numbers that nobody else picked? That's deeply suspicious'.

 

You don't like that site because you don't understand maths and probability. That's fine. However, you can't then use your understanding of probability as an argument against me.

 

The problem seems to be me confusing the two questions you mentioned here.

 

Still find the situation odd, but I accept your reply as a good response, so that is all I shall say on this matter for now.

 

I am still unsure about you and Lion though, especially Lion, but still don't think you are both scum.

[Mafia Scum Scum]

Ok guys, maybe my maths is not as good as I thought, so just pass me the dunce cap and I will go sit in the corner.

[Retro Red]

Ok guys, maybe my maths is not as good as I thought, so just pass me the dunce cap and I will go sit in the corner.

 

It's not that man, my first assumption was 1 in 256 as well. What I wasn't taking into account was that there are 16 players, so that increases the probability significantly that 2 would pick the same.

[Chris B]

Ok guys, maybe my maths is not as good as I thought, so just pass me the dunce cap and I will go sit in the corner.

 

Sorry if I was seeming overly harsh. I was just a bit frustrated that this had been explained, and keeps coming up with my name attached.

 

It's an awkward one, because a lot of probability is counter-intuitive. A friend of mine is actually a maths professor, and he keeps blowing my brain with counter-intuitive probability points.

 

The difference in the questions is 'what are the odds that the two players you pick would choose the same numbers' (which works out at 1/256 or so), and 'what are the odds that two players in the game would choose the same numbers' (which works out as closer to 120/256).

 

I don't mind being a suspect for people. I do mind being a suspect because of a mathematical misunderstanding.

[Carbomb]

Right, I've read up to now, and it's all as clear as the purest mud. The only feeling I've got is of my brain turning to mush.

 

However, insofar as I can make out, everyone's playing their usual style, except bristep, who's articulate as usual, but seems to be in a bit of a rush to end the day phase early, with comparatively little discussion of the potential lynchee's (read: TDK/brownie) guilt.

 

Leaving that aside, I also think Chris B has been rather quick to point out things that he "would" do if he was Scum - a little OJ Simpson, that.

 

swiftstrike has been as aggressive as usual, pulling at a load of threads for tenuous reasons.

 

Ron Simmons has been very measured, very calm - nobody's really placed him under any pressure yet, and I think that should change in short order.

 

brownie's moved into TDK's slot very smoothly (ooer), and has been clear and concise. Having seen him on both sides of the divide, I can't get any sort of read on him yet.

 

SMS has jumped to a couple of conclusions, but by-and-large, it's a massive improvement on his last couple of games, and I think we'll see the real "MVP" in him soon. As to actual game positioning, again - still not got a read on him yet.

 

Lion had my suspicions up very early, and I can't quite put my finger on it. It's not enough to vote on, or even FOS on, as there's nothing I can throw at him that he could answer, and that wouldn't be fair, so the best I can do is keep my eye on him.

 

tom's defended himself pretty well, as has unfitfinlay, but again - no reads as such.

 

bristep - you're the one I'm most suspicious of at the moment, mainly because you seemed to be in such a rush to lynch Browny Kay. Sure, you've pulled back, as have a load of others, to give a bit of thought to things fully, but how would you answer to an accusation that you've simply withdrawn because you've realised that a wagon that was steaming along has suddenly ground to a halt, thwarting your plans?

[Chris B]

The probability thing has been bothering me, because it IS something that people naturally understand.

 

And who brought it up? Swiftstrike. He not only brought it up, but he complicated the issue by bringing in the Lion issue, while still talking about odds.

 

 

Chris I wasn't referring to you and bristep.

 

Do you not think it's odd that both you and lion choose exactly the same numbers and the he randomly chooses a vote to go for and it's you again what are the chances of that?

 

 

That would have made sense Chris voting for you for picking the same numbers (I did that with Andrew for picking 1) but that is not what happened here is his post, almost as if he was ignoring the fact you had the same numbers.

 

Vote Chris B

 

Picked at Random

 

You asked what the odds were. I answered the best reason I thought of that he could have voted for me. If you want answers about WHY he voted for me, rather than theories, you'll have to ask him. I don't know.

I'll ask you again what are the odds on that now I have given you further information, and I'll ask Lion about his vote when he turns up.

 

 

Now, since we've established that probability is something that's easy to get wrong, I can understand the argument that Swift simply doesn't understand probability.

 

Except, in previous games, he seems pretty comfortable with the concepts. And the maths.

 

 

I am not questioning that, I am questioning the logic that you put to your night actions as it seems to be the only discussion going on here.

 

I want to know do people want a protection chain or to trust to luck and far to few people want to discuss that.

 

And I would like to discuss why you believe Chris's role means that we can't have a insane doctor given that an insane doctor only kills 50% of the time the 1 night of night actions don't prove this in fact it would take probably 3 night to be statistically significant result. At the moment we still don't know all the results but if no one else protected rockbus last night there is only a 25% probability that I could be an insane doctor where most of the other players don't even have this result given double protects happened on the first night.

 

 

It depends how many roleblockers are out there, out of 9 players, if you have have say 1 roleblocker for the town, 1 roleblocker for the mafia and a jailkeeper, that means 3 players had 6 players to pick from, leaving a 50% probability the SK would get roleblocked.

 

10 players before the night kill. 1 mafia roleblocker dead so, 1 town, 1 jailkeeper

 

approx 20% chance serial killer and he was blocked plus that is ignoring the possibility that some of the role blockers did not role block the same person. and I'm not about to put out my A level maths books and do a probability tree for this.

 

Who else remembers how probability trees work? Hell, I'd forgotten what they were.

 

So, swift. Did you just suddenly forget how the basics of probability works, or did you want to just make out something quite likely was massively unlikely?

 

 

Vote: Swiftstrike

[Retro Red]

However, insofar as I can make out, everyone's playing their usual style, except bristep, who's articulate as usual, but seems to be in a bit of a rush to end the day phase early, with comparatively little discussion of the potential lynchee's (read: TDK/brownie) guilt.

 

bristep - you're the one I'm most suspicious of at the moment, mainly because you seemed to be in such a rush to lynch Browny Kay. Sure, you've pulled back, as have a load of others, to give a bit of thought to things fully, but how would you answer to an accusation that you've simply withdrawn because you've realised that a wagon that was steaming along has suddenly ground to a halt, thwarting your plans?

 

By saying that it was incorrect. I've acknowledged that I was headstrong in my pursuit of TDK, but it was because I believed him to be scum and wanted him to be lynched. After missing out on 2 scum lynches last game because I pulled on the brakes due to a lack of confidence, I went with my instinct and pushed hard for the lynch.

 

I'll make no apologies for it, every game is a learning curve and despite claims by Brownie that I'm a 'clever player', I'm still newish to this and perhaps he's giving me more credit than I'm due simply because I'm articulate. Either way, I've not told a lie at any point in the game, and once I'm revealed to be town (by death or otherwise) maybe people will realise that if I'm playing differently in this game it's because I've been on the losing team both times I've played as town in the past, and it's because I'm still learning.

[spotlightmagnet1]

To be fair, if Lion hadn't voted for you in the RVS then Swift might not have had an argument, I think that was more to do with his accusations rather than just his incorrect maths. But I also see your point.

 

I am wondering though whether Swiftstrike is scum and found some ground with his number theory to go after you two. I can't really find anything in his posts other than your probablity evidence to support that claim, but it does seem logical to me. But I've got to stick by my suspisicion of Lion right now due to the couple of points I've already said.

 

EBWOP: The previous post was directed towards Chris B.

[swiftstrike]

The probability thing has been bothering me, because it IS something that people naturally understand.

 

And who brought it up? Swiftstrike. He not only brought it up, but he complicated the issue by bringing in the Lion issue, while still talking about odds.

 

 

Chris I wasn't referring to you and bristep.

 

Do you not think it's odd that both you and lion choose exactly the same numbers and the he randomly chooses a vote to go for and it's you again what are the chances of that?

 

 

That would have made sense Chris voting for you for picking the same numbers (I did that with Andrew for picking 1) but that is not what happened here is his post, almost as if he was ignoring the fact you had the same numbers.

 

Vote Chris B

 

Picked at Random

 

You asked what the odds were. I answered the best reason I thought of that he could have voted for me. If you want answers about WHY he voted for me, rather than theories, you'll have to ask him. I don't know.

I'll ask you again what are the odds on that now I have given you further information, and I'll ask Lion about his vote when he turns up.

 

 

Now, since we've established that probability is something that's easy to get wrong, I can understand the argument that Swift simply doesn't understand probability.

 

Except, in previous games, he seems pretty comfortable with the concepts. And the maths.

 

 

I am not questioning that, I am questioning the logic that you put to your night actions as it seems to be the only discussion going on here.

 

I want to know do people want a protection chain or to trust to luck and far to few people want to discuss that.

 

And I would like to discuss why you believe Chris's role means that we can't have a insane doctor given that an insane doctor only kills 50% of the time the 1 night of night actions don't prove this in fact it would take probably 3 night to be statistically significant result. At the moment we still don't know all the results but if no one else protected rockbus last night there is only a 25% probability that I could be an insane doctor where most of the other players don't even have this result given double protects happened on the first night.

 

 

It depends how many roleblockers are out there, out of 9 players, if you have have say 1 roleblocker for the town, 1 roleblocker for the mafia and a jailkeeper, that means 3 players had 6 players to pick from, leaving a 50% probability the SK would get roleblocked.

 

10 players before the night kill. 1 mafia roleblocker dead so, 1 town, 1 jailkeeper

 

approx 20% chance serial killer and he was blocked plus that is ignoring the possibility that some of the role blockers did not role block the same person. and I'm not about to put out my A level maths books and do a probability tree for this.

 

Who else remembers how probability trees work? Hell, I'd forgotten what they were.

 

So, swift. Did you just suddenly forget how the basics of probability works, or did you want to just make out something quite likely was massively unlikely?

 

 

Vote: Swiftstrike

No I remember how basic probabilities work, but what your quoting there isn't a basic probability study and you have ignored the fact that Lion has stated that he drew you name at random as well, so either he is lying or that is a separate probability to drop into the equation. so shall we try do the probability on that the change that two people would draw the same number and then one of those two people would then "randomly" vote for the other or shall we just question why you are so willing to barrel down on me for being prepared to look at the numbers is it so you can avoid having to scum hunt or is it that you are annonied that you are being caught out for the wrong reasons much like I was when SMS had me as a scum pair with TMS(TDK) because he didn't think that TMS was capable of doing his own cause on SMS in the game me and BRistep where scum together. Or do you have another reason for solely focusing on this because after all I haven't solely focused on it and it is merely one line of enquiry I have followed.

[tom]

Right, I'm still not sure what I think of the whole chris/lion thing, I guess there's a few options. If Lion and Chris hadn't of picked the same numbers then would 7 and 13 have been a good number choice if someone had wanted to be low down the list in order to appear to be town? If that is the case then it could well be likely that one of them is scum; now if that was Lion then it would be a possibility that his vote on Chris was simply out of anger that Chris had brought attention to the numbers by happening to have picked the same ones.