Pick Your Power Game Thread

[Retro Red]

I'm not sure where I stand on TDK/brownie now. I unvoted him after the PM thing but now it appears that everyone's PM was in that format so it means it's not as clear-cut as it would appear. Obviously now that brownie has replaced him it would be unfair to paw over TDK's posts but there's one or two things I'd like brownie to clear up.

 

Oh and before I go to bed, kit does seem apparent that tom did hit the nail on the head (yes I said that on purpose)

 

Lion attempted a stitch up

 

VOTE: Lion of the Midlands

What is your personal opinion on this? Also, you've put a FOS on Chris B and many suggest he is scum with Lion, so what does your fos on chris mean in relation to Lion?

The FOS on Chris B is down to the timing and positioning of his vote. My theory on this (vote 3 is most likely scum) was bang on last time and was also his trademark when the two of us were scum together in the Royal Rumble game. He may well be scum again, but right now, the FOS is there because it's something to keep in mind. It's just about Chris B, nobody else.

 

As for Lion and Chris both being scum - I don't think they'd pick the same numbers - it dramatically reduces the chances of them having a power role, which is daft.

 

No idea why Teedy said 'hit the nail on the head' on purpose. Some sort of hammer pun?

 

Also, Seph is right - Teedy Kay is me. I am him. We are this slot in the game. Anything said by Teedy is my reponsibility to defend/explain.

 

The 'hit the nail on the head' remark is tied back to his original FOS on me where he said "Swiftstrike may have hit the nail on the head", which became a bone of contention to people including myself.

[tom]

Right, the waters are muddied slightly. TDK's first argument was that he was a Vanilla Townie rather than Vanilla Town. However, that was already in the PM. He pointed out the quote bit before Tom mentioned it.

 

Just noticed the above from you Chris. I'm sure he didn't mention about quotes before I did because if he had I'd have known that he was right about the PM and thus about his claim and would have removed my vote. I'm sure I mentioned the quote before he did;

 

 

I know there's no more bulk in the Vanilla PM [apart from quoting the initial PM sent to Mike informing him of what role you want]

 

 

By simply admitting that although what is listed as the Basic PM is wrong, there is one massive bolt on to what Mike has listed, Lion I hope to God you see exactly what I'm talking about, and QUOTE it!

 

Note the difference in times between my mention and his hinting

[Jaffa]

Tom, just so you know, I can't comment on any of this.

 

I think due to replacing in,rather than going through whatever process the rest of you did, i've probably missed the format in PM the rest of you received.

[Chris B]

The FOS on Chris B is down to the timing and positioning of his vote. My theory on this (vote 3 is most likely scum) was bang on last time and was also his trademark when the two of us were scum together in the Royal Rumble game. He may well be scum again, but right now, the FOS is there because it's something to keep in mind. It's just about Chris B, nobody else.

 

In my defence, this is probably the most clear I've been about my thought processes in any game. I pointed out something I felt was suspicious, and I put my vote on after TDK's reactions. I think (and I may be wrong, because I'm looking back to answer Tom's point below) that Bristep voted before TDK reacted, and the other vote was at about the same time. A lot of my read was on TDK's reactions.

 

Tom, this quote came before the one you're talking about. I've bolded for emphasis.

 

That's a Basic Vanilla Townie PM posted by Mike, TDK, yet you claim every Vanilla Townie has a PM different to that? So you are a Super Vanilla townie with special powers and there are no basic Vanilla townies in the game? I don't get why you are trying to draw out vanilla townies. Is it so you can work out which town guys have powers so you can get rid of them first and then simply wipe out the vanilla townies without any opposition?

 

For someone V/LA you sure talking a lot, what's the matter, realise you can jump on me for something again and construct stories to get me lynched?

 

The Basic Vanilla Townie PM posted by Mike in this thread is incomplete. But only VT's would know that.

 

The whole point of this game tom, is that the majority have powers, in fact there may actually be less of a chance being Vanilla in this game.

 

And for someone so against me drawing out VT, you seem to be doing a good enough job yourself on Lion.

 

Hell Lion, seeing as you've claimed it, you can confirm there's a bulk missing from VT post by Mike at the start of this game!

 

However, it's now fairly obvious that not only VTs would know.

[Retro Red]

I am going to start calling you the flash.

 

I just hope my Mrs doesn't as well.

 

In all seriousness though, I'm concerned on Teedy Kay's FOS more than your vote. Very cagey, and very faux diplomatic.

 

Lets put him, as David Bowie sang, under pressure.

 

UNVOTE

VOTE Teedy Kay

 

Edit after preview: What ChrisB said basically.

 

Chris is correct, I put my vote in on TDK based on the FOS rather than his reaction to it. I did it to put him under some pressure and gauge his reactions based on a FOS which I thought looked cagey as quoted above. His reactions made me confident that I was pursuing the right line.

 

I did the same in the game before with Ron, I saw something suspect, I pulled at the thread to see what the reaction was, and the reaction I got made me believe he was scum.

[tom]

The FOS on Chris B is down to the timing and positioning of his vote. My theory on this (vote 3 is most likely scum) was bang on last time and was also his trademark when the two of us were scum together in the Royal Rumble game. He may well be scum again, but right now, the FOS is there because it's something to keep in mind. It's just about Chris B, nobody else.

 

In my defence, this is probably the most clear I've been about my thought processes in any game. I pointed out something I felt was suspicious, and I put my vote on after TDK's reactions. I think (and I may be wrong, because I'm looking back to answer Tom's point below) that Bristep voted before TDK reacted, and the other vote was at about the same time. A lot of my read was on TDK's reactions.

 

Tom, this quote came before the one you're talking about. I've bolded for emphasis.

 

That's a Basic Vanilla Townie PM posted by Mike, TDK, yet you claim every Vanilla Townie has a PM different to that? So you are a Super Vanilla townie with special powers and there are no basic Vanilla townies in the game? I don't get why you are trying to draw out vanilla townies. Is it so you can work out which town guys have powers so you can get rid of them first and then simply wipe out the vanilla townies without any opposition?

 

For someone V/LA you sure talking a lot, what's the matter, realise you can jump on me for something again and construct stories to get me lynched?

 

The Basic Vanilla Townie PM posted by Mike in this thread is incomplete. But only VT's would know that.

 

The whole point of this game tom, is that the majority have powers, in fact there may actually be less of a chance being Vanilla in this game.

 

And for someone so against me drawing out VT, you seem to be doing a good enough job yourself on Lion.

 

Hell Lion, seeing as you've claimed it, you can confirm there's a bulk missing from VT post by Mike at the start of this game!

 

However, it's now fairly obvious that not only VTs would know.

The point I was making though is that I was the first one to directly mention any quotes in the PM, not that I'm trying to make any statement or anything like that though

[tom]

EBWOP : Obviously it was TDK who brought up differences in Mike's PM

 

EBWOP : Obviously it was TDK who brought up differences in Mike's PM

[Chris B]

You've kind of lost me there, Tom.

[Retro Red]

You've kind of lost me there, Tom.

 

TDK made first mention of there being a difference between the page 1 Vanilla town sample role PM and the one he received

 

Tom was the first person to specifically mention the original role request PM quote being included.

 

I think that's what Tom is driving at.

[tom]

yeah that was my point

[Chris B]

yeah that was my point

 

Yes, but he did this after the point about Vanilla Townie, but before you mentioned the quote. What he said was accurate, and I'd class it as hinting at the quotes point.

 

However, as I've said, it's not turned out to be useful either way.

[Lion_of_the_Midlands]

The reason I claimed Vanilla is 2 fold. 1, because I am, and 2 because as anyone could work out from my draft place it was not likely that I would have a role as the chances of picking something that had not already been picked were slim.

 

Add in the fact that town is usually lynched first in a game, better it be me than a power role.

 

Unvote

[Fatty Facesitter]

Unvote

[spotlightmagnet1]

First things first:

 

Unvote

 

I did feel that with others testimonies and the template it would seem Teedy was at the very least anti-town, but since he's gone, and while I need to gone over brownie's posts again, thus far I can't see anything particularly scummy about him. Also, apparently something in the PM's is being clarified (the quoting of the original PM if I've understood right)

 

The thing I've been reading is Ron's dissection of what the Lion/Chris B./ Swiftstrike, and I still feel he puts forward a good case against Lion and Chris B. basd on Lion's RVS and the fact the numbers are the same.

 

I would also like to say the majority of Lions posts are one or two lines at most. In fact, to my count there is only one post which goes into more detail, in which you do address the accusations. However, I tend not to trust people who don't write more, makes me feel like they're trying to make sure they are unlikely to give much away. That said:

 

FOS Lion of the Midlands.

[Chris B]

Quoting this again because people don't understand probability. The odds of two people choosing the same number really isn't that unusual. It's pretty much a 50/50 chance.

 

It's been said that it's a 'strange coincidence', and the coincidence is being used as a reason for people to push suspicion of me. Again, I encourage people to read this post.

 

Let's clear something up. 1 in 16 chance of picking the first number. Then, another 1 in 15 chance for the second number. So a 1 in 240, or 0.4% chance of Lion and ChrisB picking the same numbers independently. This is only a factor if one of them are lynched and flip scum.

 

That's potentially cherry-picking probability. Let me explain (and I can't do the maths confidently, but I do understand some of the concepts behind it, so if I set it up and someone else could actually tell the odds, I'd appreciate it).

 

That's the probability that (specifically) me and Lion would pick the same numbers. The question I feel you should be asking is "WHAT ARE THE ODDS THAT TWO PEOPLE IN THE GAME WOULD PICK THE SAME NUMBERS" (clarity, not shouting). That's a hell of a lot higher.

 

From my point of view, the odds that someone would pick my numbers are pretty remote. However, the chances that two people in the game would be likely to pick the same numbers are pretty good.

 

As an example of the kind of thing I'm talking about, This link explains that the likelihood of two people in a football match having the same birthday is about 50/50.

 

Ok, then if I'm getting the math right 1/256 (1 in 16 then 1 in 16, not 1 in 15 because you could choose the same number twice) with 120 events (16 players so (16*15)/2). So a probability of 46.8% that 2 players chose the same set of 2 numbers between 1 and 16.

 

I can't answer for Lion voting for me. I'm not trying to either. But let's PLEASE lose this rubbish that it's some strange coincidence.